Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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388
FNUS53 KDTX 031938
FWFDTX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
338 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL AND DAYTIME HUMIDITY ON THE HIGH SIDE EVEN AS RAIN DIMINISHES BY
THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO GET UNDERWAY FRIDAY
LASTING INTO SATURDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MIZ047-048-053-060-061-041415-
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MIDLAND-BAY CITY-SAGINAW-OWOSSO-FLINT
338 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 10 PM...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2 AM UNTIL 5 AM...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY. POP...90 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...`POOR` (0).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. POP...100
                    PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......41 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 10 TO
                    15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5960-6460 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON...THEN...INCREASING TO AROUND 25
                    MPH LATE.
VENTILATION INDEX...`EXCELLENT` (1070).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.50 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 5 AM...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 7 AM. POP...60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 20 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH LATE.
VENTILATION INDEX...`POOR` (40).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.10 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5
                    MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6830-7330 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...`EXCELLENT` (890).
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ049-054-055-062-041415-
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-LAPEER-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BAD AXE-CARO-SANDUSKY-LAPEER
338 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 10 PM...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2 AM. POP...60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...`POOR` (0).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.10 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 10 AM. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 10 AM. POP...90 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST
                    LATE.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6360-6860 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH...BECOMING EAST LATE.
VENTILATION INDEX...`EXCELLENT` (1150).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.50 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) UNTIL 6 AM...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 4 AM...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 7 AM. POP...50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......460-660 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...`POOR` (10).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.05 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-63 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6830-7330 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...`EXCELLENT` (1200).
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-041415-
ST CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...
PORT HURON-HOWELL-PONTIAC-WARREN-ANN ARBOR-DETROIT-ADRIAN-MONROE
338 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2 AM...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2 AM UNTIL 3 AM...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. POP...60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...`POOR` (0).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.10 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 9 AM. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 9 AM. POP...100 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7890-8390 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...`EXCELLENT` (1610).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.50 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 6 AM...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2 AM...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 6 AM...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS. POP...70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......620-820 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
VENTILATION INDEX...`POOR` (0).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8310-8810 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...`EXCELLENT` (1680).
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.

$$

SF



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