Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 262354
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AT 19Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA WITH WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...THEN AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
COMMA HEAD REGION WHICH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL
GET DRY SLOTTED TONIGHT...LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
AREAL COVERAGE.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SOME SUN WAS BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
SPC DAY 1 STILL INDICATED MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DO EXPECT SOME STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO.

ALSO...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY AS 500MB TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THEN WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH
EDGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH JET ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THEY
SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT SATURDAY BY NOON WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR IS SO DRY AND
COOL THAT THERE MAY BE A FROST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT
MUCH OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDS. A DRY SLOT WILL BRING A TEMPORARY END TO THE SHOWERS
IN EAST CENTRAL WI THIS EVG...BUT AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS SHOULD
RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NEED TO WATCH PCPN
TRENDS FOR WEDS AFTERNOON...AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO
ALLOW SCT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP. FOR NOW...WILL JUST MENTION
VCSH FOR RHI/AUW/CWA.

DENSE MARINE FOG WILL IMPACT THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE MTW AND SUE AIRPOSRTS THIS EVG. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
IN THE EVG AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...AS SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KTS JUST OFF THE
SFC.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH



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