Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 150428
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1128 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS WHERE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND
SETS UP. THERE WILL BE A LARGE GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THINK MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL SOUTH
OF A STURGEON BAY TO WAUSAU LINE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
OCCUR TO THE NORTH WHILE HIGH END LIKELY/LOW END CATEGORICAL
RAIN CHANCES OCCUR SOUTH OF WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO MANITOWOC LINE.
FIGURE BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.30 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH.

THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WARRANTED SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR RAIN SHOULD END BY SUNSET.

DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND TRENDED SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

PCPN TRENDS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE PRIMARY FCST CONCERN.

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FCST AREA...ALONG WITH COOL AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY
CONDITIONS (OVER MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL/FAR NORTHEAST) ON MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TO NEAR THE
WI/U.P. BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS GRB CWA ON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GEM MODELS.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC
SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP. A 35-45 KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING
WAA AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS TO
DEVELOP. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT WORK
THEIR WAY ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SUSPECT THAT POPS WILL EVENTUALLY
NEED TO BE RAISED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A VFR CIG FROM 5-7K FT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY BEFORE DEPARTING
EASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF A AUW TO GRB
LINE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED MVFR CIGS THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DECREASING
CLOUDS ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH






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