Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 281036
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
436 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

ROBUST WAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS STRONG
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...STEADILY PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR INDICATES
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SNOWBAND EXTENDING FROM NEAR MSP SOUTHEAST
TO MSN. LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED WESTERN MARATHON AND WOOD COUNTIES
WITH VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 MILE RANGE. 00Z GRB SOUNDING LAST
EVENING INDICATED DEEP DRY LAYER THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB SO WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE THIS LATER OVER EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
IN THE FOX VALLEY AROUND 15Z. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BEST...ALTHOUGH MODEST...LIFT TO OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON SO ANTICIPATE BEST
ACCUMULATION RATES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE 800 TO 700 MB ALSO MORE ROBUST DURING
THIS TIME. STILL EXPECTING A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS PERHAPS APPROACHING 3 INCHES
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY EVENING.

AFTER ABOUT 21Z...SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
AS TO DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIPITATION JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE INITIAL  WAA BAND. THIS SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE RELATED
TO ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH
SOME ENHANCED RADAR RETURNS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE PRIMARY ISSUE
IS WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY WEAK SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.
GOING WITH A MODEL BLEND APPROACH...APPEARS MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
WOULD BE FOR WEAK BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REDEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 21Z AND PUSH EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 8 BETWEEN ABOUT 23Z
AND 03Z THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE
AS WELL AS 850 TEMPS WARM TO +2 TO +4 C OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
03Z. RATHER THAN TRY TO GET CUTE WITH POPS...HELD ON TO CHANCE
POPS A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
CONTINUED MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. IF
MOISTURE BECOMES A BIT DEEPER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED COULD
EVEN BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

BAND OF LIGHT QPF SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 8 SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND AS 850 TEMPS PUSH +6 TO +SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 427 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A ROLLER COASTER RIDE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN EXPECTED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH TRUE ARCTIC AIR
RETREATING BACK INTO CANADA.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. FRONT
HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THUS SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY.
ANY SNOW SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE WINDS WILL TURN
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
CORE OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST
OFF THE LAKE. VERY DRY AT 850MB...THUS ONLY THINKING FLURRIES
AT THIS TIME. IF ORGANIZED LAKE BAND SETS UP...HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL BE WARRANTED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD BETWEEN 850MB AND 925MB. UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES
BY THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARMING FRONT. LIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND REACH EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 9
AM AND 10 AM OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. MFVR CIGS TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH





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