Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 221729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1229 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Warm advection mid clouds should clear from west to
east this afternoon as weak upper ridge moves in from the west.
With low level temperatures warming and sunshine this afternoon
highs should get 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

Skies should start out clear this evening with increasing mid and
high clouds late tonight as an upper trough approaches from the
northwest. Low temperatures may be reached during the elate
evening hours depending on how quickly the clouds arrive. Lows
should be about five degrees above average.

The upper trough moves across Wisconsin and Upper Michigan Sunday,
with an associated surface low traveling across southern
Wisconsin. While moisture is lacking, enough upper support should
produce showers across northern Wisconsin. As the low moves by
winds will shift to the north with temperatures falling during the
late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Main story for the long term period will be the strong low
pressure system moving across the region Tuesday night into
Thursday morning. Tranquil weather is expected Sunday night
through Monday night as high pressure slides across the western
Great Lakes region.

On Tuesday, low pressure is expected to move across the central
plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop north
of the warm front. Some of the rain could make it into far
southwest Wisconsin late in the day.  The rain will make a slow
progression eastward as a 1037mb will be located across Ontario
Tuesday night. The rain should make into portions of the area...
mainly south of Highway 29. The rain will finally overspread the
entire area on Wednesday as the low is expected to move to near
Chicago. Any thunderstorm activity at this time should remain
south of the area across southern Wisconsin. The low is then
expected to move into lower Michigan Wednesday night. Just enough
cold air where some snow flakes may mix in across the north. Do
have chances of snow across portions of the north for this period.
Lingered chances of rain across the east Thursday morning as the
system continues to move away from the area.

A weak disturbance will bring a small chance of showers on Friday.
Only made minor adjustments in some periods for max/min

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR low clouds over eastern Wisconsin will shift east early this
afternoon leaving mainly clear skies for the rest of the daylight
hours. A weak area of low pressure over the northern High Plains
is forecast to move into the Upper MS Valley toward daybreak and
bring some mid/high clouds to northeast Wisconsin. There also may
be some patchy fog around that could lower vsbys into the MVFR
range. This low pressure is expected to move across central
Wisconsin Sunday morning and drag a cold front through the region.
Winds will switch to the north and increase into the 10 to 15 knot
range (with higher gusts) Sunday afternoon. Rain chances appear to
be limited to northern Wisconsin Sunday afternoon associated with
the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough passing through the
northern Great Lakes. Even with precipitation in the vicinity,
expect VFR conditions to prevail through Sunday.



LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......AK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.