Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 291144
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
644 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY TODAY TAKING THE RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT. THEN UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE PLAINS
STATES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STABLE UPPER AIR
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST AND A RIDGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE WILL PREVENT MUCH...IF ANY...ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION FROM
OCCURRING....WHILE GENERATING A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.  A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL WORK FOR THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BENEATH A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT SOUNDINGS REMAIN RATHER
DRY.  PROBABLY LOOKING AT AN INCREASED FOG THREAT RATHER THAN LOW
STRATUS.  OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM PERIOD.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIP SINCE IT BECOMES RATHER SHEARED BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE REGION.  THE EXTENDED BLEND PRODUCES SLIGHT
CHANCES...AND WILL STICK WITH THAT.  FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVE....THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARM SO THAT SOME 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15 OR 16Z TODAY IN
MOST AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM


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