Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 141112
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
612 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance for rain today across central and east-central
  Wisconsin along and south of highway 29, with the best chance
  along and south of highway 10 (40-70 percent).

- Temperatures begin downward trend today while still remaining
  around 5 to 10 degrees above average through Saturday. More
  seasonal temperatures expected Sunday and Monday.

- A system dropping south out of Canada will bring a few chances
  for wintry precip this weekend, mainly for northern WI.

- Strong winds expected Saturday as sustained northwest winds
  reach reach 20-30 mph and gusts to 30-40 mph, strongest across
  central WI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Friday

Doppler radar shows dry air continues to win the battle this
morning against rain trying to make its way north. Despite mid
level frontogenesis, isentropic lift, and a mid level shortwave
tracking through the area, low level dry air from the northeast
has thus far kept rain out of central and east-central Wisconsin.
However, further south, a steady area of rain continues to lift
north over far southern Wisconsin. This area of rain is expected
to lift north during the day as a slug of better moisture advects
north coincident with a surface low tracking through the
southwestern Great Lakes region. Despite this, model soundings and
hi-res models indicate that the rain from this system will only
be a glancing blow to the area later today and moving out of the
area by the early evening hours. The rain will mainly be confined
to central and east- central Wisconsin or along and south of
highway 29 with the best chances south of highway 10. Given the
new model trends trimmed back POPs quite a bit further south from
the previous forecast; although there is some indication from the
hi- res models that there may need to be more trimming if the
driest solutions win out.

A ridge of high pressure will bring a return to dry conditions to
the western Great Lakes region later tonight and into Friday as
skies clear out from north to south.

Since less precipitation is expected today, raised highs today to
reflect the corresponding warmer temperatures expected, especially
across central and north-central Wisconsin. Highs today are
expected to range from the lower 50s across central Wisconsin, to
the middle 40s across east-central Wisconsin. Clearing skies will
allow temperatures to fall into the lower 20s across the north
tonight, with lows around 30 across east-central Wisconsin and the
lakeshore. Highs on Friday are expected to range from the upper
40s across the north, to the lower 50s across central and east-
central Wisconsin away from the lakeshore.

Long Term...Friday Night Through Wednesday

 Main focus of the extended period revolves around a system
progged to drop south across the region this weekend bringing
strong winds as well as chances for rain and snow, particularly
across northern WI. Additionally temperatures will trend more
seasonal Sunday and Monday behind a cold front.

Precipitation...An upper-level trough dropping south over WI
Saturday along with a surface low tracking across southern Ontario
are forecast to bring a few periods of precipitation to the region
this weekend and into early next week. The first wave of
rain/snow looks to come Saturday morning as the initial cold
front and upper level jet energy swing across the area. Much of
the precipitation during this period will likely be confined to
north and north-east WI as drier air with dew point depressions of
10-12 degrees will be in place across central and east-central
WI. The better chance for a more widespread area of light snow
comes Sunday as cyclonic flow drags a secondary cold front across
the region, however, similar to Saturday a dry surface layer may
prevent much snow for reaching the ground across much of central
and east-central WI. Additionally, with the cyclonic flow creating
favorable northwest winds and CAA creating lake surface to 850 mb
delta Ts of 13 to 18 degrees periods of lake effect snow may be
possible across the snowbelt region of northern WI Saturday night
through Monday. Current probabilistic guidance is showing a 40-70%
for greater than 1" by Sunday evening across much of Vilas County
with decreasing chances further south. As the upper-level trough
works off to the east Monday the area is expected to become dry
for the middle of next week as surface high pressure takes control
of the region.

Winds...A tightening pressure gradient and strong winds of 30-35
knots just off the surface at 925 mb will make for breezy
conditions Saturday. Sustained northwest winds of 20-30 mph will
be possible across much of the region with occasional gusts to
30-40 mph, strongest across central WI. Winds will gradually
diminish as they veer more northerly Sunday but gusts of 20-30 mph
will remain possible.

Temperatures...Highs out in front of the cold front Saturday will
remain above normal with much of the area reaching the low 40s to
low 50s. Behind the front more seasonal temperature are forecast
Sunday and Monday with highs ranging from the upper 20s to mid
30s. Most location Monday may even be 4-8 degrees cooler than
normal. Temperatures are expected to start warming back up next
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs back in the mid 40s to mid 50s by
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

An area of rain continues to lift north this morning across
southern Wisconsin; however, the rain is running into abundant dry
air in place across northeast Wisconsin as evidenced by the rain
evaporating as it heads north. Confidence in the rain reaching the
TAF sites continues to diminish and get later in the day. At this
point will pull rain from the KGRB TAF site and only include VCSH
as hi-res models keep this site dry. The only sites still at risk
for rain later today appear to be KATW and KMTW for a period of
time this afternoon as the rain delivers a glancing blow to the
area. Even with the rain, conditions are expected to remain VFR
across the entire area throughout the day given the abundant low
level dry air in place. Skies will clear out overnight as the low
and rain pull away from the region.

Northeast winds will increase this morning to 20 to 25 knots
given a tight pressure gradient, with the highest winds across the
east- central Wisconsin TAF sites. Winds will then diminish later
tonight and turn north as the low pulls away from the region.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/GK
AVIATION.......Kurimski


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