Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 180319
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1019 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF WISCONSIN KEPT AN EASTERLY FLOW
OF...RELATIVELY...DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SKIES
CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT WINDS BROUGHT SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS TO EASTERN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A
GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WEAKENS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER...ENTER THE PICTURE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES AND SPREADS
EAST ON MONDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS WISCONSIN FROM LAKE WINNIPEG.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL AS INSTABILITY APPEARS MODEST AND THERE
ARE WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS SYSTEMS GO BY TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH IN
SPLIT FLOW. ANOTHER BREAK EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOTS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES BY THAT
POINT IN STRENGTH AND TIMING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED AT TIMES BY PRECIPITATION BUT
WILL BE MILDER THAN USUAL IN GENERAL. LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINTS SPREADS WERE NARROWING. FOG SHOULD...HOPEFULLY NOT GET
OUT OF HAND AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST INTO
THE AREA. THE OTHER ISSUE IS TO TIME PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF
SITES. LATEST HRR WOULD SUGGEST FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION WOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY.
ONCE THE FIRST ROUND EXITS THE AREA...MORE REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING AT TIMES INTO TUESDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR DEPENDING
ON YOUR SPOT DUE TO PRECIPITATION OR FOG. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





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