Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 200802
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
302 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHWESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN
GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO TODAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RECOVER TO AROUND 60
DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE MILDER
TEMPERATURES HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS COLD TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A
FEW MORE DEGREES. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WEAK TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS
FEATURE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT QPF SO WILL CONTINUE THE
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA GIVEN THE MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
INSTABILITY WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AS WELL AS TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE MID 50S. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL NUDGE DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TO AROUND NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS GENERALLY FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BOTH ALSO INDICATED
A SMALL AREA OF LOW QPF IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT SO
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER
THAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HELP
TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE GFS AND EC SHOWED CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS UNCERTAIN AS THE
GFS HAD QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING IN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM...WHILE THE EC
WAS A FULL DAY SLOWER. THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED DUE
TO THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. IT WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH CHANCE POPS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY...WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ON ITS WAY OUT BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE AS
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH


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