Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 291121
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
521 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

An occluded front is currently making its way through the western
Great Lakes, which will bring an end to the widespread rain across
the cwa. Despite the passage of this frontal boundary, the main
surface low will remain to the north, with the mid level low to
the west over Minnesota. Wrap around moisture will bring a
continued chance for showers across the north as a mid level
shortwave tracks around the main low situated to the west.
Satellite imagery shows some clearing is possible across central
and east-central Wisconsin this morning, with skies remaining
mostly cloudy to the north. The later arrival of cold air and some
sunshine will mean highs will be highest across east-central
Wisconsin around 50, with highs in the upper 30s further north
under mostly cloudy skies and a sooner arrival of cold air from
the west. A continued tight pressure gradient will bring gusty
winds to the area today, with the highest winds across central and
east-central Wisconsin.

Fairly dry conditions are expected tonight as another occluded
front pushes through the western Great Lakes region. Additional
showers are expected across the area on Wednesday as the main
surface low tracks across northern Wisconsin coincident with a mid
level shortwave. Given the push of cooler air, some snow may mix
in at times across the north. Highs on Wednesday will be limited
to the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Expect a cooling trend late this week, with cooler temperatures
prevaililng for the weekend into early next week. Though daytime
highs will be cooler, they should still be at least a few degrees
warmer than normal.

A surface low and mid level cyclone will bring a chance for light
snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning, starting out as rain
or a mix at some locations, but amounts should be light.
Precipitation chances will come to an end across most of the area
by Thursday afternoon, but are expected to linger in north central
Wisconsin due to lake effect. Generally dry weather should prevail
on Saturday as a surface ridge reaches Wisconsin.

Models showed significant differences by early next week so have
not made changes to initial model blend for that part of the
forecast. Hopefully they come into better agreement over the next
12 to 24 hours.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 521 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Conditions have improved to MVFR out to the west, with VFR
conditions across the eastern TAF sites early this morning.
Conditions will eventually improve to VFR at all TAF sites
throughout the day. Gusty southwest winds will allow a mild and
drier airmass to push into the area today. These gusty winds will
gradually subside later this afternoon with a weaker pressure
gradient.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Gale force winds appear to have come to an end across the
nearshore waters early this morning. Therefore have allowed the
Gale Warnings to expire on time. A continued tight pressure
gradient will keep winds gusty today across the western Great
Lakes region. Although winds may approach or hit Gale Force at
times this afternoon, winds are expected to stay below Gale Force
for much of the day. While winds will subside below Small Craft
Advisory Criteria this afternoon, waves will remain elevated
across the Lake Michigan nearshore waters through this evening.
Therefore will issue a Small Craft Advisory for the Lake Michigan
nearshore waters through this evening and extend the Advisory for
the central and southern Bay of Green Bay through this afternoon.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Kurimski
MARINE.........Kurimski



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