Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 241649
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1149 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Latest surface analysis shows a cold front located across the
southern Great Lakes early this morning. This front will lift back
north as a warm front today, bringing warmer temperatures back to
northeast Wisconsin this afternoon as winds turn to the southeast
and become gusty this afternoon. Dry air will keep relative
humidities low today as highs soar into the 60s away from Lake
Michigan.

Low pressure developing across the northern Plains will slowly
push east over the upper Mississippi Valley tonight, then over
northern Wisconsin on Tuesday. The system will bring increased
rain chances as it heads east, especially on Tuesday. However the
aforementioned dry air in place should hold off precipitation
chances for the area through the overnight hours until better
moisture and dynamics arrive with the main system on Tuesday. The
main exception may be far north-central Wisconsin where a slight
chance will remain as the system gets close to this area. The
increased clouds and warm air in place will keep lows tonight
relatively warm in the 40s. Despite the rain chances on Tuesday
highs will be even warmer as the area is well within the warm
sector and warm air advection allows highs to soar from the middle
60s across the north, with highs around 70 across central and
east-central Wisconsin away from Lake Michigan.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

This part of the forecast continues to look active, with chances
for precipitation in at least some part of the forecast area for
much of this week through the upcoming weekend.

The jet energy for the upcoming systems was just moving onshore
over the western CONUS at 00Z and model differences remained.
This was impacting the forecast track of the systems and the
precipitation location, amounts, and type expected with them.

Models had their highest QPF values across the northern part of
Wisconsin Tuesday night with mid level short wave energy moving
through the state and the approach of a surface low. So there are
at least chance PoPs across the entire area Tuesday night. Rain
chances continue on Wednesday with the surface low moving into
Wisconsin. Models begin to diverge more starting Wednesday night,
but have precipitation chances continuing, with some freezing
rain possible in far north central Wisconsin as colder air wraps
around the departing surface low. Thursday afternoon looks drier,
with the forecast area between surface systems, but there is still
a chance for rain in the far north.

The next system will track farther south and bring rain chances
to central and east central Wisconsin on Friday. The rain chances
increase and spread across the rest of the area starting late
Saturday night and continuing through Sunday. There could be some
snow or a mix of rain and snow on Friday night into early Saturday
morning and again Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Expect high temperatures to be several degrees warmer than normal
at most locations on Wednesday. Cooler air then moves in for the
rest of the week through the weekend, with highs mostly below
normal.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

A cold front will slowly move east and enter the northern
Mississippi Valley tonight into Tuesday. Southeast winds will
increase this afternoon with some gusts up to 25 kts at the taf
sites. LLWS is expected to develop this evening, as surface winds
decrease and winds aloft increase to 35 to 45 kts. Otherwise, will
see scattered to broken mid-level clouds through the taf period,
with virga possible. Rain showers look to arrive on Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

As a cold front lifts back north as a warm front across the
western Great Lakes today, warmer temperatures will return along
with gusty southeast winds and low relative humidities. Near
critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon as
temperatures rise into the 60s, winds gust to 20 to 30 mph, and
relative humidities bottom out in the 20s. A low pressure system
arriving from the west will bring relief on Tuesday as relative
humidities rise to around 50 with rain showers.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......MPC
FIRE WEATHER...Kurimski


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