Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 231929
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
229 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTWEST ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL BY A FEW HOURS.
BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID COMPROMISE WITH OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND HAD MID RANGE
POPS ALREADY BY 18Z. LOOKING AT THUNDER PARAMETERS...NOT VERY
PROMISING FOR EVEN A CLAP OF THUNDER. DID REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS
THE NORTH AND ONLY HAD SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF PRECIPITATION...THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE SFC-BASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST BY MEMORIAL DAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DELIVER A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WI FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWING
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTER MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN U.S. AND DRAW
THE SFC LOW NE INTO CANADA. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER AT TIMES...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH. DID ADD SOME
SPRINKLES IN THE 18Z KRHI TAF FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD KAUW/KCWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY STILL QUESTIONABLE...BUT A SLOWER ARRIVAL LOOKS TO BE THE
CASE AT THE MOMENT. FOR KRHI/KATW/KGRB/KMTW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
ARRIVE AFTER 18Z. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FROM 16Z-18Z FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE KAUW/KCWA TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......ECKBERG



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