Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 061104
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
504 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH WARMER
AIR RETURNING OVER THE COLD SNOW PACK.  FIRST FOR TODAY...ONGOING
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE MAX
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS MAINLY SLOWLY EXPANDING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA APPROACHING THE AREA. AT
PRESENT RATE THESE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z...CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND EASTERN SECTIONS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING EASTWARD LATER TODAY. UPSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGH...CLEARING NOTED AND ANTICIPATE A DECREASE CLOUDS TREND
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN
TOWARD THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND PASSING
CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CLIPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH.

THIS CLIPPER SLIDES QUICKLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH CAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...INVERSION LIKELY TO BE LESS DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...BUT CLOUDS TRENDS MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE TEMPS
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF A WRN CONUS UPR RDG
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEREBY ALLOWING A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS WL BRING AT LEAST AN EARLY TASTE OF
SPRING TO NE WI AS TEMPS GO FROM BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN
MODEL ISSUES FOCUS ON PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SW CANADA/NW
CONUS REGION AND ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT EWD NEXT WEEK. THIS IS NOT A
SURPRISE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH SYSTEMS AFTER A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT. FOR NOW...THIS PATTERN WL BRING MILDER TEMPS/BELOW
NORMAL PCPN TO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CLOUDS SHOULD CONT TO THICKEN OVER THE REGION SAT NGT AS THE NEXT
NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES SE INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. WHILE THE LEADING
EDGE OF ANY PCPN MAY APPROACH CNTRL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO
NORTH...15 TO 20 DEGS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHERE THE BETTER
PCPN CHCS WL OCCUR. THE NAM AND GFS FOCUS BETTER PCPN CHCS FROM
NRN WI NWD ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. THE GEM AND
ECMWF FOCUS HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET AND MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MOST OF THIS WINTER...NE
WI ENDS UP BETWEEN THE MAX PCPN AMOUNTS. SINCE EITHER MODEL CAMP
SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE...HAVE PLACED CHC POPS FAR NORTH AND ALONG
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHC POPS WL BE USED IN-BETWEEN.
MAX TEMPS TO BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDS/PCPN CHCS...WITH READINGS
ABLE TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 30S N-CNTRL WI...MID TO UPR 30S FOR
E-CNTRL WI.

A WEAK SFC RDG IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NGT AND ALLOW SKY CONDITIONS TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENUF WIND THRU THE NGT TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING
TOO FAR WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS NORTH...AROUND 20
DEGS SOUTH. AS THE SFC HI MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MON...WINDS WL GRADUALLY BACK FROM WEST TO SW
AND START TO BRING MILDER AIR MASS INTO WI. 8H TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 0C AND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE MID TO UPR 30S THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA.

FCST GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED BY TUE AS THE GFS IS NOW
SUGGESTING THAT THE UPR RDG WL NOT BREAK DOWN AS MUCH AS
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND KEEP SOME SEMBLENCE OF A BROAD UPR TROF
OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW
THIS AND INDICATE THE UPR RDG TO CONT WEAKENING WITH THE MEAN FLOW
TURNING NEAR ZONAL ON TUE. PREFER TO STAY THE COURSE OF THE
MAJORITY SOLUTION HERE AND KEEP THE PACIFIC AIR MASS FLOWING
ACROSS WI. MAX TEMPS FOR TUE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
40S ON AVERAGE WITH A FEW UPR 40S POSSIBLE FROM WAUTOMA TO SHAWANO.

MILD CONDITIONS TO CONT THRU WED ALTHO MODELS REMAIN ON THEIR
INDEPENDENT SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT FROM
THE NW. THE ECMWF DROPS THE FNT INTO WI WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
GEM STILL HAS THE FNT WELL TO OUR NW ACROSS NRN MN. THIS WOULD NOT
IMPACT TEMPS ON WED WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S SOUTH (AWAY FROM LAKE MI). HAVE KEPT
WED DRY FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN LOCATION OF THE CDFNT AND A
GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE PRESENT. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO
EXIST OVER NE WI BY NEXT THU AS WINDS TURN TO THE E-NE BEHIND THE
FNT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH A LACK OF ANY SYSTEMS EVIDENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES S OF THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLD DECK WITH MVFR CAT CIGS FRIDAY. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW CLD FORMATION...AND EVEN SUGGESTS
SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER...WITH
PROBABLY ONLY SCT-BKN CLDS WITH VFR BASES. STILL NO INDICATION OF
LOW CLDS ACRS NE KS/NW MO/SW IA WHICH IS WHERE THEY SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING ACCORDING TO THE NAM. SO...WL CONT WITH TAFS LEANING
TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH






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