Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 312041
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM. SOME CONCERN ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR FROM HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON BAY RESIDES. TYPICALLY IN THESE
SITUATIONS...WILL TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MODEL ON QPF AND
SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE NORTHWARD TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 29 LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

FOR MANITOWOC AND KEWAUNEE COUNTIES...DRY AIR WILL BE BATTLING
LONGER FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS
BACK MORE NORTHERLY. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MANITOWOC COUNTY. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

LINGERING LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL WI
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT MODELS ARE KEEPING THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND SNOW WELL SOUTH OF GRB CWA. HAVE REDUCED POPS...AND JUST
KEPT A CHANCE IN C/EC WI.

SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NC WI TUES
NGT INTO WEDS...BUT WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE WEST-NORTHWEST...SO MOST
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER PENINSULA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WEDS NGT THROUGH THU NGT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST
FORCING IS FORECAST OVER NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR. SINCE THIS IS DAY SIX...THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS
DURING THE SAT-SUN TIME FRAME...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT
AT THIS TIME.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...AS PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES REINFORCE THE CANADIAN/
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE LARGER HUBS AT MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE TO NEAR
KGRB/KAUW LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH LATER SUNDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHERLY/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
TO COMPLICATE MATTERS EVEN MORE...SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCEMENT
MAY CAUSE THE SNOW TO ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER AT KMTW. TAILORED
TAFS TO HIGHLIGHT THE SHARP CUTOFF IN THE SNOW FROM THE KGRB AND
THE KATW/KMTW TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






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