Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FGUS73 KGRB 021021
ESFGRB
WIC125-085-041-037-075-069-067-083-073-115-125-078-029-141-097-
135-087-061-009-137-139-015-071-DDHHMM-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
417 AM CST MON FEB 02 2015

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  2/2/2015 - 4/26/2015

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MERRILL             11.0   13.5   15.0 :  30   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
ROTHSCHILD          25.0   27.0   28.0 :  21   15    7    6   <5   <5
WISCONSIN RAPIDS    12.0   13.5   14.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:YELLOW RIVER
BABCOCK             12.0   15.9   16.6 :  55   60   <5    9   <5   <5
:OCONTO RIVER
OCONTO               9.0   12.0   14.0 :  12   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:UPPER WOLF RIVER
LANGLADE            11.5   12.5   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WOLF RIVER
SHIOCTON            11.0   13.5   15.0 :  72   56   <5    6   <5   <5
NEW LONDON           9.0   10.5   11.1 :  43   40   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER
ROYALTON             5.0    8.0   10.0 :  18   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WAUPACA RIVER
WAUPACA              6.0    7.5    9.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FOX RIVER
APPLETON             8.4    9.0   10.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MENOMINEE RIVER
FLORENCE             9.0   11.0   13.0 :  40   20    6   <5   <5   <5
NIAGARA             13.0   15.0   16.0 :  41   20   13    6   <5   <5
VULCAN              20.5   22.5   24.5 :  32   15    6   <5   <5   <5
MCALLISTER          15.0   18.0   19.0 :  73   43   15    7    6   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/2/2015 - 4/26/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MERRILL               8.4    8.7    9.3   10.0   11.2   12.5   13.7
ROTHSCHILD           19.2   19.7   20.7   22.5   24.5   26.4   27.8
WISCONSIN RAPIDS      5.5    5.8    6.7    7.8    9.7   11.1   12.1
:YELLOW RIVER
BABCOCK               7.3    8.0    9.7   12.4   14.3   15.1   16.7
:OCONTO RIVER
OCONTO                6.3    6.6    7.1    7.7    8.2    9.2    9.5
:UPPER WOLF RIVER
LANGLADE              9.4    9.5    9.8   10.2   10.5   10.7   10.8
:WOLF RIVER
SHIOCTON              9.7   10.0   10.9   11.8   12.7   13.3   13.5
NEW LONDON            7.4    7.9    8.4    8.9    9.5   10.0   10.1
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER
ROYALTON              3.0    3.2    3.3    4.0    4.7    5.4    6.2
:WAUPACA RIVER
WAUPACA               2.3    2.4    2.6    3.0    3.5    4.0    4.9
:FOX RIVER
APPLETON              6.2    6.2    6.5    6.9    7.3    7.9    7.9
:MENOMINEE RIVER
FLORENCE              6.7    6.9    7.7    8.7    9.8   10.8   11.5
NIAGARA              10.0   10.3   11.4   12.8   14.0   15.2   15.9
VULCAN               10.7   11.2   12.4   13.8   15.6   16.8   17.7
MCALLISTER           13.4   14.1   14.9   16.1   17.5   18.5   19.5

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/2/2015 - 4/26/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MERRILL               4.9    4.9    4.8    4.7    4.7    4.6    4.4
ROTHSCHILD           13.9   13.6   13.4   13.4   13.3   13.3   13.3
WISCONSIN RAPIDS      3.2    3.2    2.7    2.4    2.4    1.3    1.3
:YELLOW RIVER
BABCOCK               1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8
:OCONTO RIVER
OCONTO                4.7    4.6    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
:UPPER WOLF RIVER
LANGLADE              7.7    7.7    7.7    7.7    7.6    7.6    7.6
:WOLF RIVER
SHIOCTON              3.3    3.1    3.0    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.4
NEW LONDON            2.6    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.1
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER
ROYALTON              1.2    1.2    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1
:WAUPACA RIVER
WAUPACA               1.4    1.4    1.4    1.4    1.4    1.3    1.3
:FOX RIVER
APPLETON              5.5    5.4    5.3    5.1    4.9    4.9    4.9
:MENOMINEE RIVER
FLORENCE              3.3    3.2    3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
NIAGARA               5.4    5.3    5.1    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9
VULCAN                5.5    5.5    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.1    5.1
MCALLISTER            9.2    9.2    9.0    8.9    8.8    8.8    8.8

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GRB FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE FIRST SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED FEBRUARY 19TH.

$$











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