Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 171930
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS... MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF RAND RAPIDS. SKIES WILL TURN SUNNY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT A CHILLY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH 70 DEGREE
READINGS LIKELY ON EASTER SUNDAY INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW IN DEPICTING THE
FLARE UP OF A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF LWR MI.

MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST... WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75
INCHES...ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT BY 06Z. AT THE SAME
TIME... A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A PV ANOMALY PASSING THROUGH AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.

BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS... FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR JXN/LAN/BTL AREAS.
ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.

MODELS ARE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON DECREASING CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL FCST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
LAN/JXN MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS INTO MID AFTERNOON.

SFC RIDGE BRINGS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH STAYS TO OUR NORTH WHICH HELPS
KEEP THE EAST WINDS UP AT AROUND 5-10 MPH. THIS MAY KEEP SRN
SECTIONS A BIT ABOVE FREEZING BUT AREAS NORTH OF I-96 SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20S.

WARMEST HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY... IN THE LOWER 60S... SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE FROM MKG SOUTHWARD
THANKS TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

WE ARE LOOKING AT TWO SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM...ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND ANOTHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A GENERALLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
PERIOD.

EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE QUITE A NICE DAY FOR SRN
AREAS...WHILE NRN AREAS WILL BE COOLER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN A STORM. WE WILL SEE A FRONT DROP DOWN INTO NRN MI BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE INCREASINGLY MORE SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH
AND A BETTER SHOT AT BEING IN THE 70S.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MORE SO ON MON. MILD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA INTO MON. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BRING A CHC OF RAIN. ANOTHER WAVE DIVING IN FROM THE NW WILL HELP TO
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE RAIN CHCS ENDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING.

WE WILL SEE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MID-WEEK WITH NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH COMES
ONSHORE ACROSS CA OFF OF THE PACIFIC. WARMER AIR WITH A INCREASING
CHC OF RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP ON THU. THE STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE PLAINS BY THU WILL BE PUMPING MUCH WARMER AND MOIST AIR IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE 18Z FCSTS IS THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN TONIGHT AND
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS. ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AS OF 17Z THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE WATCHING
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WE ARE
EXPECTING THEM TO MIX OUT/LIFT AS THEY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SOME WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FCST PERIOD.

WE EXPECT LOWER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME/04Z ACROSS THE SE AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SE
LOWER. WE EXPECT THE RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO BE MAINLY SE OF
KGRR. RIGHT NOW WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
RAIN. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE SE BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM NW TO SE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

NUMEROUS AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE CANCELED TODAY BASED ON
UPDATED REPORTS FROM ROAD COMMISSIONS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS THAT
CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING. FOR NEWAYGO...OSCEOLA...AND ISABELLA
COUNTIES THE AREA FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT IN ROAD CONDITIONS OCCURS DUE TO A RECESSION OF THE
FLOOD WATERS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER CONTINUES WITH A
SLOW RECESSION FORECASTED. EVART WILL HOLD ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE CROTON WILL HOLD ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AS SUCH...SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PROPERTIES ALONG THE MUSKEGON
RIVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY. THE CROTON DAM
OPERATION CONTINUES TO REDUCE FLOWS DOWNSTREAM...LEADING TO A SLOW
AND STEADY DECLINE IN RIVER LEVELS FOR INTERESTS IN NEWAYGO AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS IN
SIGHT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO THE RIVER RECESSION WILL CONTINUE.

THE PERE MARQUETTE AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS CONTINUE TO HOLD BETWEEN
MINOR AND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH BOTH RIVERS EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IMPACTS FROM FLOOD
WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...HOVING









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