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000
FXUS63 KGRR 140703
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
303 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly sunny and mild today/Monday

- Strong winds behind the front Friday with lingering light rain

- Temperatures rebound over the weekend and continue into next week


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

- Mostly sunny and mild today/Monday

Interesting little system moving across northern
Wisconsin/northern Lower early this morning. A strong surge of
warm air aloft coupled with robust mid level lapse rates is
helping to produce showers/storms over northern Wisconsin/northern
Lower. Present indications are such that almost all of the rain
will remain north of the cwa, but it`s possible that the northern
row of counties could get clipped with a few showers.

We`ll be solidly in the warm sector today and temperatures will
respond by climbing into the lower to mid 70s before the trailing cold
front moves through later this afternoon.

High pressure will build into the region Monday rendering clear
skies and slightly cooler temperatures compared today. However,
highs in the upper 60s will still be 10 degrees or so above
normal.


- Strong winds behind the front Friday with lingering light rain

As the large upper level low exits the region Friday it will swing a
tight gradient through the region behind the cold front Friday into
Saturday. A mid level short wave associated with this system will
bring +3.2 anomalous 850mb winds according to the NAEFS. These
anomalous 850mb winds currently peak around 55kts over northern Lake
Michigan.  Expect this advection across the region Friday. The winds
winds corresponding to the cold front will reach the region early
Friday morning with very little impediments to it. So Strong
northwesterly flow of 20 to 30 mph sustained with gusts upwards of
40 mph to be likely through the daytime on Friday. Though rain is
likely with this, there isn`t a lot of moisture so expect cold light
rain along with the windy conditions Friday.


- Temperatures rebound over the weekend and continue into next week

  As the upper level low continues to move to the northeast the
pressure gradient will remain entrenched across the region. However
it will continue to slacken as a weak ridge builds into the upper
mid west Saturday. So while gusty winds will continue through
Saturday they will in the 15 to 20 mph range with gusts upwards of
25 to 30 mph.
   Any cold air will be short lived as warm air will be advected
into the region beginning late Saturday. A mid level short wave
trough extending from the previously mentioned upper level low will
swing through Sunday. There is a chance it brings some light
showers. However, it is fairly moisture starved and is downsloping
off a ridge that is building over the central plains. So expect the
trough to dry out as it descends. So the best chance for rain on
Sunday will be along and north of the US 10 corridor and the rest of
the region should have a mix of sun and clouds but be dry.

   Maximum temperatures continue to be on the upswing with max
temperatures along and south of the I 96 corridor to be above 70
Sunday and through mid next week.

  There is the potential for another rain event Tuesday into
Wednesday, however currently there is low confidence on the timing
and strength of that system.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

LLWS is well underway overnight as a 55 kt low level jet spreads
over the region, in the midst of weaker surface level flow. Wind
shear of 45-50 kts at 2000 ft can continue to be expected. This
threat will diminish in the 12z-14z time frame. Shower and
thunderstorm activity across NE Wisconsin and NW Lower Michigan
should stay north of all terminals overnight, but will maintain a
weather watch over Lake Michigan to see if any rogue showers or
storms develop south of that cluster of storms. Current odds are
low.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Waves will continue to diminish this morning...but may start off
in the 3-4 foot range from St Joe to Holland before decreasing to
1 to 3 feet.

Winds will increase again ahead of a strong low Tuesday and a
Small Craft Advisory and potentially a Gale Warning may be needed
Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04/Hoving
AVIATION...Hoving
MARINE...04