Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 170300
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1100 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder Temperatures with Light Snow Into Monday

- Clipper Monday Night/Tuesday

- Chance of Light Mixed Precip Thursday/Friday and Early Next Week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A cold front has surged southeast this evening and has cleared the
entire state. Cold northwest winds are in place across the entire
Lower Peninsula. Lake effect snow will develop by morning as
850mb temperatures drop to -11C or -12C over the lake by 800am.
Lower to middle teens C delta T`s will be in place. Moisture will
be on the increase so snow showers are expected at daybreak.
Better conditions for lake effect snow are in place on Sunday
afternoon, Sunday night and Monday where some light accumulations
of snow are possible towards Lake Michigan. Tonight, any lake
effect snow will be light and fairly inconsequential. Lows
tonight will range from the upper 20s over Central Lower to the
Lower 30s over Southern Lower.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

- Colder Temperatures with Light Snow Into Monday

The initial round of showers has moved to an area mainly along
and south of a Kalamazoo to St. Johns line. Expect this area of
showers gradually shift southeast this afternoon and evening as
the mid level front clears the area. Behind the mid level front
850 winds will become a little lighter, but still breezy with
northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph into Sunday with the highest
gusts along the lakeshore. The continuation of these breezy winds
is due to decent low level lapse rates allowing for mixing aloft.
These low level lapse rates may also aid in the development of
light showers tonight into Sunday morning with the cold air
advecting in. Moisture is not that great so would expect
precipitation to be light. With the colder temperatures moving in
behind the front we will see a transition from rain showers to
snow showers. Little to no accumulation is expected into Sunday
morning.

The better spread in 850 mb and lake surface temperatures does not
really set up until Sunday night with differences around 17
degrees. Looking at the lake effect set up some light
accumulations will be possible along the lakeshore into Monday
morning. Those that see bands set up overhead will have the
potential for a couple of inches which could result in impacts to
the Monday morning commute.

- Clipper Monday Night/Tuesday

A fast moving clipper system will move through the area overnight
Monday into Tuesday afternoon. The greatest chance for light snow
will be within our northeast CWA in Clare, Osceola, and Isabella
Counties where a few tenths of an inch may fall. Snow will come to
an end Tuesday afternoon, then dry weather prevails through
Wednesday and part of Thursday.

- Chance of Light Mixed Precip Thursday/Friday and Early Next Week

The next chance for precipitation looks to be late this week into
early next week. Ensemble members narrow in on precip chances
Thursday evening to Friday evening with a brief shortwave, then
additional precip into early next week with another surge of energy.
There doesn`t seem to be much agreement on amounts, timing, and
precipitation type, but there does seem to be general agreement that
the late extended period looks wetter.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Bands of showers continues to move through lower Michigan
overnight into Sunday. Gusty winds will continue through the
first half of the evening with winds decreasing around 06Z.
Ceilings stay VFR through the forecast period. Winds will increase
again between 10Z to 15Z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A persistent cold air advection northwest wind will be in place
into early next week. We have opted to extend the Small Craft
Advisory through early afternoon on Monday. It is likely this
headline will need to be extended further. GFS BUFKIT overviews
would suggest we will need a SCA into portions of mid week (Tues/Wed).
A westerly component wind of 15-30 knots will be common into mid
next week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Duke
DISCUSSION...Thielke/RAH
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...Duke


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