Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRR 201914
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION LOWER CLOUD BASES WERE NOTED WITH MANY
SITES UNDER 2K FEET. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF KJXN BY
20Z. A PATCH OF CLEARING WAS SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERALLY
VFR CLOUDS WERE NOTED TOWARD KMKG AND KFFX. THIS SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE GO INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. MVFR
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LOW RISK FOR IFR. NOT MUCH
CHANGES INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CLOUDS TO PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.