Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 240728
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
328 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

It will be a wet weekend across Michigan as a front will stall
across northern Lower Michigan today and then slowly meander south
on Saturday. Periods of rain will continue into early next week as
low pressure approaches from the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

POPs and temperatures are the challenge in the near term as a
stalled front across northern Lower today sinks south tonight and
on Saturday. Expect afternoon maxes today to have a wide range,
from the upper 60s across the far south to the upper 40s across
the far north.

High res models show potential for some scattered showers
persisting across central zones this morning in an area of
continued isentropic ascent. POPs for this morning were shaded
south a bit to account for this. The afternoon should be dry
across much of the forecast area with some breaks in the overcast,
especially across the south under the crest of the upper ridge.

POPs increase again tonight and Saturday as the front sinks south
which also brings in shallow colder air with maxes restricted to
the 40s most places on Saturday. Sfc low is occluded and filling
as it approaches from the southwest on Sunday, but Lower Michigan
remains in an area of upper level divergence and coverage of
showers should continue to be extensive through much of Saturday
night and Sunday.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The wx pattern will remain showery and unsettled Sunday night
through Monday. A trough of low pressure will continue to bring
showers Sunday night into Monday. A low pressure system over the
Arklatex region early Monday will also move northeast and bring more
showers Monday night into early Tuesday.

Dry weather will finally return late Tuesday through Wednesday as a
high pressure ridge builds in from the north. Temperatures will
average above to much above normal through Tuesday before returning
to closer to normal for this time of year for mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Most of the rain and scattered thunderstorms will move out
of the area during the next couple of hours although a few
light rain showers may linger overnight mainly at KMKG. Conditions
should be VFR overnight but some patchy fog may develop toward
daybreak. There is not enough potential in fog development to
warrant mention in any of the terminal forecasts.

Vfr conditions will continue Friday morning and afternoon but
south to southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 kts with some
gusts to 25 kts possible Friday afternoon. Showers will redevelop
Friday evening and conditions Friday evening will deteriorate to a
mix of IFR/MVFR due to development of patchy fog and low clouds
and showers. Some LIFR is possible by mid to late Friday evening
as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Waves will be near 4 feet today and into this evening from South
Haven to Grand Haven. Did not issue a SCA given marginal
conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

An active weather pattern starting Thursday night and lasting
through at least early next week will provide multiple episodes of
at light rain, and occasional periods of heavier rain. Thursday
night through Sunday, rainfall totals between 0.75 and 1.5 inches
will likely fall over the area, with the higher-end amounts favored
in Muskegon river basin. River levels will likely rise as a result.
Some rivers may eventually climb back to bankfull next week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...Ostuno



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