Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 151358
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
958 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Chance Of Showers Saturday

- Colder with Chance Of Snow Showers Sunday/Monday

- Temps Remain Below Normal Mid To Late Next Week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Satellite trends this morning have shown a stratus layer across
central and west central Lower Michigan, as well as the US 127
corridor area. The RAP13 975mb RH indicates this cloud layer will
slowly erode later this morning into the midday period, and the
southernmost extent of the cloud layer is likely at its peak right
now. You can already see some erosion in the cloud deck across
portions of central Lower Michigan, but it will likely take a few
hours to mix out. The cloud deck looks a little thicker from
Lansing to Jackson and it may take until closer to midday or very
early afternoon to begin clearing out there.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

- Slight Chance Of Showers Saturday

A cold front will move in from the northwest Saturday afternoon.
Moisture with this system looks quite limited so there is just a
slight chance of a light rain shower. Dry wx will prevail for the
vast majority of the day and many locations will not receive any
measurable rainfall with this system.

- Colder with Chance Of Snow Showers Sunday/Monday

An upper trough will settle over our region Sunday/Monday as H8 temps
plummet to around -10 to -12 C by early Sunday evening and -12 to
-13 C Monday. This will result in increasing lake induced instability
 resulting in lake effect snow showers both Sunday and Monday.

Light snow accumulations on the order of an inch or less are
expected from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon in our
favored nw flow snow belt regions and areas mainly west of
US-131.

- Temps Remain Below Normal Mid To Late Next Week

The upper trough will move east of our region Tuesday as the upper
pattern gradually becomes more zonal for mid to late week. However
temperatures will continue to average around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal for this time of year mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 739 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Ceilings (cigs) have dissipated faster at the terminals than
expected. However, we are watching an area of IFR cigs over
northwestern Lower Michigan spreading southward. The immediate
lakeshore doesn`t seem impacted and therefore we are not concerned
about restrictions at MKG, but there is a slight chance that the
southern fringe of this cloud deck could briefly impact GRR with
IFR/MVFR cigs prior to 15Z. This is too uncertain to mention in
the TAFs at this moment, but an imminent amendment/correction may
end up being needed. We shall see.

Otherwise, winds will gradually shift from north to northwest for
the rest of the day with high probabilities for VFR conditions
areawide after 15Z this morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

North winds will back to the northwest this afternoon but remain
fairly light at around 5 to 15 kts. Winds will continue to back
to the southwest overnight and begin to ramp up toward daybreak
Saturday. Marine headlines will be needed from early Saturday
morning through the rest of the day.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoving
DISCUSSION...Laurens
AVIATION...TJT
MARINE...Laurens


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