Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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013 FXUS63 KGRR 080532 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 132 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stormy this evening, chance of rain Wednesday night - Rain Expected Thursday and Saturday && .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 While the earlier convection which produced the tornadoes has weakened and moved east, another line of storms is now racing east across Lake Michigan from WI. This activity is expected to gradually weaken, but there is still a respectable wind core aloft with the line pressing toward Holland and MKE gusted to 49 kts earlier. Special Marine Warning recently issued may need to be followed up with at least a Special Weather Statement for parts of the lakeshore for gusts up to 50 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 - Stormy this evening, chance of rain Wednesday night The forecast is progressing as expected and severe storms are a distinct possibility the rest of this afternoon and evening. Radar shows the initial push of showers/non-severe storms has migrated to the eastern cwa and clearing is rapidly filling in behind it across the southwest cwa. Destabilization is rapidly occuring and as a strong short wave moves closer, severe storms have developed over northeast IL and are moving northeast toward Lower MI. SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE around 2500 j/kg and bulk shear greater than 60 kts across northeast IL. Severe storms will continue to develop to the southwest through early evening and move into the cwa and all severe hazard types are possible: hail, wind, tornadoes. Areas south of I-96 have the highest risk for severe storms, but all of the cwa has a chance. The severe threat will end after 10 pm as the short wave axis rotates north out of the cwa. Wednesday will be dry with weak ridging moving into the cwa. However, it will be short lived as the rest of the upper trough pivots through the state beginning Wednesday night. Highs will be in the 70s Wednesday and lows in the 40s Wednesday night. - Rain Expected Thursday and Saturday Rainfall begins early Thursday morning and continues into the day Thursday as a low-pressure system tracking through the Ohio Valley, aided by a mid-level wave, sends a band of deformation rainfall across the area. Highest rain potential will be across southwest lower Michigan closer to the low`s track with better FGEN. Rain chances are lower across Central Region as its further away from the better forcing. Can`t rule out a bit of thunder given 6-7C mid-level lapse rates but chances are low and would mainly be limited to near and south of I94 if at all. Shortwave ridging and an area of high pressure keep Friday dry across the area. Highs will warm into the low 60s. Our next chance of rain is Saturday as a shortwave sends a surface low near Lake Michigan. Could see some diurnal enhancement to shower activity as the upper-level cold pool moves overhead with steeper mid-level lapse rates supporting thunder chances. Best rain chances will be across the southwest half of the CWA between the low track and placement of the upper-level cold pool. Predictability then decreases going into the start of next week as model spread in the upper-level pattern increases. Showers may continue into the start of next week but low confidence in when they will end. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 132 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday afternoon with winds turning northwest around 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Any areas of fog should diminish on Wednesday will see fair weather and waves 1 to 2 feet. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Meade DISCUSSION...04/Thomas AVIATION...04/Thomas MARINE...Ostuno/04