Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 290730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND IT WILL
ALSO BECOME RATHER WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGES INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PCPN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT SNOW AND MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHERN FCST AREA NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96
AS THERMAL PROFILES MODERATE.

AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER IMPACTS WILL
BE VERY MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PCPN AND TEMPS EVEN UP
NORTH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S SUCH THAT SOME MELTING WILL
OCCUR.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. A FEW SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE ESPECIALLY FROM KMKG NORTH TO
KLDM.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR TO MAINLY NE OF KGRR.

IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PCPN PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO INTO KGRR/KLAN WHEREAS
00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY AFFECT OUR
FAR NORTH TO NE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AFTER A LENGTHY STRETCH OF CHILLY WEATHER... A COUPLE OF MILD
SPRING-LIKE DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH READINGS
LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60 ON THURSDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF
A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA... WHICH EDGES IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SFC FRONT THAN THE GFS AND HAS
RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS THE RAIN
ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 06Z THURSDAY AND EXITING ALREADY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE CRITICAL
BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR.

THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR
BEHIND IT. IF THE SLOWER ECWMF IDEA OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
CORRECT...WE COULD SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ALSO HOW STRONG THE WIND GUSTS GO.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR KMKG SUN
AFTERNOON MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. COULD GO IFR IF IT ENDS UP
SLIGHTLY COLDER. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR KGRR AS IT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL...KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW.

WIND LOOKS STRONG AS WELL WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY TOPPING 40 KNOTS
FOR KGRR AND KMKG. ABOVE 30 KNOTS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

IFR LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLIMBS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS









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