868
FXUS63 KIWX 302324
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
724 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Other than a stray shower possible Wednesday, showers and
  storms are more possible Friday and Monday.

- Unseasonably warm through the week with highs generally in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

High pressure slides east supporting continued dry conditions into
Wednesday, with dew points dropping into the upper 40s and low 50s,
as well as a return to a warm air advection pattern. Lows are
expected to be slightly warmer than last night, in the 50s. With the
drier air lingering and despite the relatively low temperatures, dew
point depressions in the upper single digits to teens out ahead of a
weak cold front may allow for a low end slight chance PoP Wednesday
morning with greater chances in the west before temps warm and re-
establish higher dew point depressions in the I-69 corridor with
mixing ensuing.

Wednesday`s cold front rises back north as a warm front Thursday
allowing for our warmest day this week with highs securely in the
80s. Mid level temperature anomalies amounting to 1 to 2 SDs above
normal indicate possible capping and with minimal shear, this would
indicate any PoP shower/storm Thursday afternoon is more of the
pulse variety if they do form. Have retained slight to low end
chance PoPs for that set up.

There`s some question about how fast the cold front moves through on
Friday and there`s a lack of shear notable on models with much of
the forcing going north of the area. While some instability could be
around depending on the speed of the FROPA, this likely stays sub-
severe. The atmospheric column is dry on Saturday with the best
moisture residing south of US-24. Perhaps there`s a pop shower or
storm there during the afternoon so will retain some PoPs to
accommodate that.

After a brief break in the unsettled weather occurs for Sunday with
a surface high pressure center moving through, the Monday through
Tuesday period looks to see renewed chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Temperature wise, the norm this week will be highs in the 70s and
lows in the 50s, which is slightly above average for this time of
year. The warmest day will be Thursday with highs securely into the
80s, but both Wednesday and Friday have chances for a few areas to
see 80 degrees as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The ridge axis will move east of the area with winds becoming
temporarily light before increasing later tonight ahead of a
cold front. A very brief intrusion of limited moisture along
with some upper level support may generate isolated showers.
Saturation deficits may not be able to be overcome. Have kept
the mention of showers and lower ceilings out of the TAFs,
although can not rule out a sprinkle or very brief intrusion of
a MVFR ceiling between 09Z and 12Z. Otherwise, gusty winds will
prevail nearly all of the day. Also, did mention LLWS especially
at SBN late tonight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Skipper