Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 231032
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
632 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Chances or rain will increase today roughly northwest of a Marion
to Fort Wayne to Hillsdale line. An isolated thunderstorm is also
possible across these locations. Otherwise, partly to mostly
cloudy conditions will be in store today. Rain chances will expand
eastward across the remainder of the area tonight into Wednesday
morning, with widespread rain Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A rumble of thunder is possible. High temperatures this afternoon
will range from the mid to upper 60s across southwest Lower
Michigan to the mid 70s across northwest Ohio. Low temperatures
tonight will drop back into the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 428 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

An upper level low will develop over the area Wednesday in
response to a strong disturbance dropping into the west side of
the main trof. Given the track of the low and the development of a
TROWAL, widespread rainfall amounts between 0.75 and 1.50 inches
are expected by late Thursday. Given recent rainfall amounts over
the Maumee and Upper Wabash basins that ranged between 3 and 5
inches over the past several days, have issued a Hydrologic
Outlook for these basins in northern Indiana to highlight possible
flood concerns. Rain will develop Wednesday with a few storms. The
storms are not expected to become severe given very limited
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 428 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

The upper level flow will become more west with moderating
temperatures by late in the week. Highs should be in the 70s over
the weekend. There is much uncertainty on the timing of showers
and storms during this period. It looks like there with be 2 or
possibly 3 periods with showers and isolated storms; otherwise,
the rest of the time will be dry with temperatures near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Perturbed southwest upper flow will bring a couple of weak short
waves across the western Great Lakes region today. A broad axis of
low level confluent flow has allowed weak theta-e ridging to build
across northwest Indiana this morning with some light
showers/sprinkles. Dry subcloud layer should limit extent of
rainfall, but may need to tempo -RA for several hours this
morning. Perhaps best chance of a period of more solid light rain
for the afternoon hours as more pronounced low level moisture
convergence axis shifts across northeast Illinois/southwest Lower
Michigan. However, with stronger forcing likely remaining just
northwest of KSBN, may limit this mention for the afternoon hours
to VCSH. VFR conditions should hold through most of this period,
with some lower end potential of MVFR cigs late in this forecast
valid period. Light south winds this morning will back east this
afternoon as sfc reflection pushes into southern/central Illinois.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 428 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Another rainfall event is set to unfold Wednesday. Widespread
rainfall amounts between 0.75 and 1.50 inches are expected by late
Thursday as an upper low develops and tracks over the area. Given
recent rainfall amounts over the Maumee and Upper Wabash basins
that ranged between 3 and 5 inches over the past several days,
rises on rivers are expected. River flooding on at least some
rivers is likely. Lowland flooding is also possible as grounds
remain saturated from recent rainfall. Light to occasionally
moderate rain is expected over the area tonight through Wednesday
night.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Marsili/Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili
HYDROLOGY...Skipper


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