Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 161604
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1104 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS BRINGING RAIN
TO THE AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TONIGHT THE RAIN
WILL BE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN AND ENDING ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTH TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN IL AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY. AN AREA
OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY TODAY. RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATED ISOLATED
SLEET WAS MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. ANY SLEET WILL BE BRIEF AND SHOULD
BE LOCAL AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 45 DEGREES. THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW IN
THE TROWAL WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AS COLDER
AIR SPREADS BACK OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ONLY MINOR VARIANCES WARRANTED FROM PRIOR FORECAST AND CORROBORATING
LATEST MODEL BLEND. CONTINUE UNIMPRESSED WRT LES RESPONSE MIDWEEK
GIVEN NOMINAL SATURATION DEPTH. 295 DEGREE CBL FLOW VEERS TO ABOUT
310 THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT...THOUGH LWR TEENS DIFFERENTIALS
GENERATING LTE 200 J/KG LAKE INDUCED CAPE WITH LK INDUCED EQL ONLY
TOPPING 4KFT WED AFTN/EVE. THEREAFTER...925-8H COLD POOL SHIFTS WELL
EWD THROUGH LWR GRTLKS/WRN PA BY DAYBREAK...PUTTING FINAL KIBOSH ON
ALREADY LACKLUSTER CONDITIONING. ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA RIDGING POSES DIFFICULTY WRT CLOUD COVER AS DIRTY
RIDGE/TRAPPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AGAIN APPEARS PSBL THU/FRI.
MODELS TRENDS WRT EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX MULTI-EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WEST
COAST TROF HAS BEEN DECIDEDLY SOUTHWARD SHUNT WRT SFC CYCLOGENESIS
FRI/SAT. COLLABORATIVELY REMOVED HIGH BIAS BLENDED POPS FRI
NIGHT...AND ONLY TOKEN LIGHT SNOW CHCS SAT...PERHAPS WITHIN LAGGED
INVERTED TROF WITHIN NRN DUMBBELL OF HEIGHT FALL CENTROID TRACKING
THROUGH SRN GRTLKS. NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH APPEARS TO BE NRN STREAM
CLIPPER FOR POTNL LIGHT ACCUM ABOUT DY8.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHEAST IL AND WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. AN AREA OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY LOW
CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND VSBYS OVER
THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LOW TO VERY LOW IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE AREA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND AS
DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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