Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221729
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
129 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70...EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. ONE
MORE CHILLY NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING WELL
DOWN INTO THE 40S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S IN LOCALLY COLDER
SPOTS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL REACH NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LTL OF NOTE THIS PD OTHER THAN EWD PROGRESSION OF MASSIVE SFC RIDGE
TWD THE WRN ATL THIS WEEKEND. HWVR THIS MARKS A TURN IN TEMPS W/SLOW
NEWD EXPANSION OF PLAINS LL THERMAL RIDGE AND WARMING TEMPS. WILL
NOTCH TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS AFTN IN REF TO MIXED LYR PROGS AND
ABUNDANT INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI MAY
22 2015

AN UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. ATTEMPTED TO BLEND A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. CHALLENGES WITH THIS
PATTERN INCLUDE THE EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AND MID LEVEL STABILITY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT TIMES
WILL BE AROUND 5C/KM...WHICH MAY ACT LIKE A MID LEVEL CAP. FOR
THIS PACKAGE...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SUBSEQUENT SHIFT/S WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABLE
TO BE MORE PRECISE WITH THE TIMING OF STORMS AS INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE TROFS MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. KEPT HIGHS ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH CLOSE TO 80 EACH
DAY OVER MOST AREAS GIVEN THE NORTH EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LEWIS


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