Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 231810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
210 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

A cold front will bring low chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. Drier and cooler
air then filters in behind this front tonight into early next
week. Highs on Monday will reach the mid 70s to near 80 degrees,
with highs on Tuesday in the upper 70s to low 80s. Warmer and dry
then into Wednesday before the next cold front brings renewed rain
and storm chances Wednesday night into Thursday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

The main focus for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening
will be on shower/storm coverage and intensity. Very
subtle/diffuse boundaries on the leading edge of an approaching
mid level shortwave trough may provide enough of a focus for
isolated to widely scattered showers/storms across ne IN/nw OH/sc
Lower MI during the mid-late afternoon. Weak forcing/convergence
with overall moisture quality in question should limit the
coverage and intensity, though cannot rule out an isolated
stronger storm given MLCAPE values near 1500-2000 j/kg and deep
layer shear ~30 knots.

The other feature of note will be scattered convection expected to
develop across ne IL/srn WI near the primary cold front. This
activity will attempt to survive into areas mainly west of US 31 early
this evening, weakening and shifting more south with time thanks to
waning diurnal instability and orientation of main instability

Passage of the synoptic scale trough will allow cooler and much
drier air to filter in later tonight into Monday as flow in the low
levels back north-northeast post-frontal. Subsidence/height rises in
wake of the trough, with sfc high pressure gradually building in
from the northwest, will result in dry conditions and only a
scattered CU field on Monday.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Dry and noticeably less humid conditions will persist into Monday
night and Tuesday under high pressure surface and aloft.
Heat/humidity levels then increase into Wednesday as southwest
flow returns in advance of an approaching cold front expected to
move through the local area later Wednesday night-Thursday with
the only real threat for showers/storms during the long term
period. Chances for severe storms appear low given marginal shear
profiles and unfavorable diurnal timing (another weakening/early
morning MCS?). Ample moisture return (not surprising for late July
in the Corn Belt) and slowing nature to the frontal
slope/convection as it becomes more aligned to weaker mid- level
flow could pose a heavy rain threat. This return to storm chances
and higher humidity will be brief as the next Canadian shortwave
southeast through the Great Lakes brings high pressure and dry
conditions back into the picture Friday into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
but should be widely scattered. Kept high end MVFR at SBN this
afternoon but that should improve after storms clear out by late
this afternoon. Winds during the forecast period will be between 5
and 10 kts generally out of the NW. Drier and VFR flight
conditions over the terminals starting this evening through the
end of the period.




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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