Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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640
FXUS63 KIWX 051922
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
222 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A RETURN TO
MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF
THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A CHANCE OF SOME
FLURRIES IN FAR NW AREAS AS SMALL POCKET OF INCREASED LIFT AND
INSTABILITY CAN BE SEEN GENERATING A FEW FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

PARTIAL SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH AN ATTEMPT TO
SATURATE DOWN THROUGH THE COLUMN. CONCERNED THAT LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM FALLING DESPITE SOME
SIGNALS IN A FEW OF THE HI RES MODELS. AN INCREASE TO NON ZERO POPS
WAS WARRANTED FOR THE TIME BEING...HIGHEST NORTH WHERE A SMALL
WINDOW OF WESTERLY FLOW AND MARGINAL LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD GIVE THE BEST WINDOW FOR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
REACHING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AND FALLING BACK INTO THE MID
20S TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MILD WX TO START THE PD AHD OF SEWD ADVG POTENT NRN STREAM SW
AMPLIFYING SEWD OUT OF CANADA. SOME PENCHANT EXITS FOR RA/SN SHRA
TO DVLP CNTRL/EAST SUN AFTN WITHIN EMERGING RTN FLW MSTR PLUME YET
WILL HOLD W/IMPLIED SLWR GRIDDED TIMING FVRG SUN NIGHT. THEREAFTER
CENTROID OF VIGOROUS H7-5 CIRC TO SETTLE OVERTOP THE AREA ON MON
AS FVRBLY ALIGNED CROSS LK MI LL FLW DVLPS WITHIN INCREASING LL
THERMAL TROUGHING. THIS WILL YIELD A PRONOUNCED LK ENHANCED SNOW
EVENT STARTING MON NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT IF NOT WED.
HWVR PLACEMENT QN/S REMAIN COINCIDING W/AS YET STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD ALOFT ESP W/SWD EXTENT OF PSBL PHASING OF ARCTIC STREAM
DISTURBANCE OVR HUDSON BAY. REGARDLESS 00-12Z TRENDS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT AND DEEMED MORE CORRECT IN LIGHT OF XPCD ADDNL
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLW OF WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED TDA.

BEST OVERLAP OF SYS ASSOCD MID LVL MSTR...LK MSTR FLUX AND FLW
TRAJECTORIES FVRS HIGHEST POPS WEST HALF MON NIGHT AND NORTH HALF
TUE/TUE NIGHT. CROSS OVERLAP OF POTENTIAL SNOW BANDS PORTENTS SOME
FORM OF HIGHLITES WILL BE NEEDED IN COMING DAYS. OTRWS WK CLIPPER TO
FOLLOW ON THU AND REACTIVATE LK EFFECT THU NIGHT-FRI BFR THE FLW
BACKS ARND AHD OF NXT MORE POTENT LOOKING DISTURBANCE NXT WEEKEND.

WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MON WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN LAKE MI AND FAR NW IN WILL EDGE
EAST THROUGH KSBN THIS AFTN (20/21Z ISH). STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN ALONG THIS FEATURE.
POST-FRONTAL SATURATION ALSO LIKELY ENOUGH TO ALLOW MVFR STRATOCU
TO REACH KSBN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DRY/MAINLY
VFR OTHERWISE TONIGHT-SATURDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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