Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 300012
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
812 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 805 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Low pressure will slowly drift back north into Michigan and
eventually Ontario over the next couple of days. Occasional showers
will occur overnight into Friday and then chances diminish
gradually through the weekend. then starting this evening and
persisting into Saturday. Highs will remain near to slightly
above normal in the middle 60s to lower 70s with lows in the 50s
for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Thus far this afternoon convection has been to the north and west
of the area with other activity rotating towards the northwest
from eastern/central Ohio associated with the next wave. This
activity will pose the main concern mid evening into early Friday
with potential for pockets of moderate to heavy rain possible.
Before then expecting more of a hit and miss convective regime
with some potential expansion in the 21 to 00z window before
diminishing. Used HRRR experimental as it keyed in well yesterday
on convective development and has been overall decent today. May
need a further increase/expansion in pops given upstream trends
but for now have held no more than likely pops.

Coverage will increase even further Friday as strongest wave rotates
around the upper low and it moves back north across the area. Severe
weather not anticipated but could see some small hail with the
stronger cells.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Deep upper low will final begin to make a trek back towards the
north into Ontario Sunday and eventually New England by Tuesday.
Several pieces of energy will still be rotating around the low to
bring periodic chances for showers (storms?) into Saturday with
trends finally heading towards drier conditions Sunday and
especially Monday through Wednesday. While convection will mainly
be diurnally driven Sat afternoon/eve chance will exist just about
anytime so will maintain chance or slight chance pops outside time
frames with greatest potential.

A period of above normal temperatures will arrive with highs well
into the 70s through Wednesday as yet another trough digs into the
Plains with models differing on exact handling and timing as what
will likely be Hurricane Matthew may be raising havoc with the upper
level flow mid to late week. Slight chance to chance pops mainly
west Weds Ngt into Thursday as main dynamics remain to the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Stacked deep low pressure center over central Kentucky will
oscillate with a slow transition northward into far southern
Indiana by late Friday evening. First in a series of
circumferential channeled shortwaves to impact northern Indiana at
start of forecast period and expect a sharp drop in ceilings/shra
shortly and again another bout early Friday morning that should
saturate downward into predominately IFR primarily due to
ceilings. Cool/saturated airmass to likely lend very slow
improvement by midday and likely remain at or below fuel/
alternate levels for much of the daytime hours.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Murphy


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