Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 240823
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
423 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL PRIMARILY
BE IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

NIL SENSIBLE WX CONCERNS THROUGH SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WESTERN GREAT
LAKES CENTROID SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12 UTC
FRI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD TEMPER OF MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN DOMINANCE OF
THERMAL TROF CORE ACROSS CWA ALONG WITH INLAND PUSH OF MODIFIED LAKE
ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW OVERNIGHT HAVE DOUBLE
DOWNED ON COLDER NEAR LAKESHORE DRAINAGE WIND IN BERRIEN/KBEH
VCNTY...OTHERWISE SIMILAR COOL TEMPS. SOME MINOR CONCERN THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD IMPEDE OTHERWISE IDYLLIC/STRONG
SURFACE BASED AM INVERSION. LACK OF SIG UPSTREAM TSRA COVERAGE AND
LARGE 4-2H DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGESTS THE CONCERN FALLS WELL
OUTSIDE REALM OF MOST PROBABLE OUTCOMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL EDGE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ALLOWING FOR
FLATTENING OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL AT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WITH A
WEAKER FEATURE IN THE PLAINS THAT DROPS SE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
SHARE CONCERNS OF PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH EXACTLY HOW MUCH...IF ANY
PRECIP MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY. SIGNALS
WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST A CHANCE AND WHILE POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLGT
CHC CATEGORY IN PREV FORECAST...WILL HOLD WITH THIS TO AVOID FLIP
FLOPPING AS EXACT EVOLUTION STILL UNCERTAIN.

BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE AS MAIN SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES STARTING SUNDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE IN THE GENERAL
AREA WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST...POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA SAT NGT (REF NEW
SWODY3). WHILE SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO JUST
KEEP CHC POPS GOING SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT WITH FURTHER EXTENSION
SUNDAY AS MAIN SHORT WAVE ARRIVES.

SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE MAIN WAVE WITH
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND...LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...SAVE
FOR PSBL RECURRENCE OF MVFR/2KFT CIGS INVOF KFWA WITH FURTHER
MORNING DRAINAGE/CONVERGENCE IN MAUMEE VALLEY NEAR DAYBREAK. MINOR
DETAIL/CHANGE GROUPS FOR DIURNAL WIND SPEED CHANGES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY


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