000
FXUS63 KIWX 181011
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
611 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms return this evening, ending before
  sunrise Friday.

- Dry and cool this weekend with morning frost likely Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Deepening sw trough through srn Canada will intensify upper jet from
the Dakotas to the Great Lakes through tonight. Robust warm
advection developing swd will lead to substantial low level
moistening by this evening. Vigorous convection across ne KS early
this morning looks to expand newd near term yet decay by aftn as it
progresses out of returning low level theta-e ridge. Nevertheless
secondary development wwd within expanding/destabilizing warm sector
through the mid MS and wrn OH valley this aftn will push east
quickly this evening. Some severe risk indicated generally south of
the US24 corridor in Indiana with hail and isolated wind predicated.

Initial post frontal cold advection push on Fri decays yet is
followed by a second and much colder push Saturday. Placement of
cold Canadian high centered over NE and weak gradient flow here will
stave off a sig freeze yet widespread frost looks likely Sun morning.
Otherwise amplified flow through se Canada keeps area cool and dry
until Tue when another nrn stream wave drops out of the upper
midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing at both TAF sites as ceilings
continue to climb this morning. Clouds should dissipate, with
any clouds becoming operationally insignificant for the first
part of the day on Thursday. Winds had lightened up considerably
overnight and should be below 10 knots for much of the morning
and afternoon. As a cold front approaches this evening,
ceilings will quickly drop to MVFR between 21Z Thursday to 00Z
Friday and even approach IFR by the time rain/storms start
after 00Z Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be most likely between 02-06Z Friday at KSBN and KFWA. MVFR
ceilings persist through the end of the TAF cycle, with VFR
ceilings just outside of the realm of this 24 hour TAF
forecast.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson