Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 280553

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
153 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

An upper level trough developing through the Great Lakes will
bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
persisting into Saturday. Temperatures will remain seasonable
into early next week before a significant warming trend ensues.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

As an interesting aside...vis imagery loop this aftn which clearly
shows cntr of sfc ridge nr KRZL. Meanwhile wk upstream sw trough
ovr wrn MN will cont to translate sewd this pd...crossing the
local area Thu aftn. Still concerned though wrt old stalled fntl
zone invof the OH river and swd shunt of deeper ll mstr into the
TN valley. Nonetheless enough of a focus aloft looks to be present
to act on a at least a weakly unstable airmass by aftn and sprtv
for sct storms esp south half of cwa in proximity to track of sw
trough and somewhat btr ll theta-e ridging. Otrws as this
circulation crosses into Oh overnight some signals of shra contg
Thu night alg/north of the highway 30 corridor as brief mid lvl
fgen dvlps within nwwd trailing mid lvl confluence zone.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Generally zonal flw aloft underneath east Canada troughing will
break sharply twd more upr ridging cntrd acrs the cntrl plains by
erly nxt week. Hwvr old synoptic fntl zone xpcd to remain bottled
up invof the OH river this pd w/general subsidence xpcd w/nwd
extent and see ltl reason to carry more than a minimal diurnally
fvrd pop Fri/Sat aftn.

Aft that fairly sig upr ridging xpcd to dvlp through the plains esp
mid-lt pd. Nwd extent of upr ridge and placement uncertain
w/considerable spread noted amongst med range guidance. Hwvr lg
scale pattn points to well abv normal temps dvlpg twd Dy7 and
persisting thereafter alg w/a propensity for a potentially more
active pattn to dvlp alg nrn periphery of this hot/unstable airmass.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Overall anticipate VFR met conditions through the forecast period.
Concern for late afternoon convection amid several upstream
shortwaves and near/just after optimal surface
heating/destabilization. Still chances appear too low for anything
more than a VCTS/CB mention. Later forecasts to likely provide
more explicit timing for possible tempo mention.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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