Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 222346
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE N-NE PORTION OF CWA EARLY THIS
EVE AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WK
SHRTWV WAS MOVG THROUGH FAR NRN INDIANA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
SRN MI ATTM. BEYOND THIS... EXPECT A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE PRE-DWAN HOURS AS
ANOTHER WK SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND WERE ADJUSTED UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGES TO LOWS ATTM... THOUGH CONCERNED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTG OVERNIGHT... THAT GOING LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GULF MOISTURE FLOWING N-NE AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST WAS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM EAST TX N-NE TO
WI-MI... INCLUDING AT KSBN. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA ATTM SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF KSBN AND REMAIN
NORTH OF KFWA THIS EVE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WK SHRTWV
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APCHG STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC WARM FRONT
OVERSPREADS NRN INDIANA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
UPDATE...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


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