Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 280551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TODAY...AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN OHIO LATER TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER A COLD START
THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 30S. WHILE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...THIS IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
PERSISTING ACROSS LOCAL AREA. DEPARTING MID LEVEL COLD CORE WITH
THIS TROUGH AND ROBUST LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BRING
AN END TO LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLY
EVENING TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED MINS FROM 10
TO 15 STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FORECAST ELEMENTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AS DRY CP AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY STRETCH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS
DRY ADVECTION/BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW ENDS LAKE RESPONSE. GUSTY
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS BL DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE LONGWAVE FLUX AND
PLUMMETING TEMPS. WENT CLOSE TO MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...A FEW
DEGREES COLDER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. COULD BE ISOLATED SPOTS THAT
DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER KEPT MOST
AREAS AT 10F OR HIGHER AS RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S...AND AMPLE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED W/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE TRAIN WILL BE LEAVING THE TUNNEL OF COLD AIR AND ON ITS WAY
TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEFORE WE GET
THERE...STILL A FEW ISSUES TO DEAL WITH.

SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE LAST OF THE
"COLDER" ONES POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUN
NGT. TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT BE OVERLY
RICH IN MOISTURE. STILL ENOUGH POTENTIAL WITH IT...ESPECIALLY NW
HALF...TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS SUNDAY. WITH TEMPS STARTING WELL
BELOW FREEZING...MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MORNING MAINLY NE AND ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT. NEITHER
SETUP SHOULD YIELD MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS TO WORRY ABOUT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL WILL BEING TO
RELAX AND EVENTUALLY SHOW SIGNS OF A SOMEWHAT LONGER STRETCH OF
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS LONGWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL SETUP
MID WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HAVE KEPT THINGS RESERVED AT THIS POINT WITH
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAST THE RETURN FLOW CAN SETUP. MEX GUIDANCE
COMING IN WITH SOLID 60S TUES THROUGH THURS AND WHILE TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST WE WILL FINALLY HEAD BACK THAT WAY...FRONTAL
POSITION AND ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL COLD CAUSE RATHER LARGE NORTH
TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENTS INITIALLY WITH MEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT SHOWING THIS NICELY AS A 15 TO 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMP POTENTIAL EXISTS. HAVE STAYED IN MID-UPR 50S FOR NOW WITH
HOPE LATER FORECASTS CAN WARM THINGS UP FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST PD AMID EXTREMELY DRY
TROPOSPHERIC CONDS. MINOR DETAIL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
OSCILLATION AT KSBN...FOLLOWED BY WEAK RETURN FLOW AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES INTO SRN OHIO TOWARDS END OF FCST PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY


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