Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
FXUS63 KLOT 232027
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016
203 PM CDT
Quiet conditions are expected through this evening with increasing
chances for shra/tsra late tonight and into tomorrow.
For the remainder of the afternoon and this evening, expect
generally quiet conditions across the region. Temperatures this
afternoon should top out in the low 80s under partly cloudy skies.
Developing sswly flow has lead to increasing low level moisture
with sfc dewpoints returning into the lower 60s across the area.
Gulf moisture should begin to return in earnest late tonight as
the moist air can finally make it`s way around the sfc ridge
extending into the lower Mississippi Valley and expect sfc
dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s by daybreak. Warm/moist
advection and modest isentropic lift should bring increasing cloud
cover with deeper layer moisture. Timing of pcpn onset is still
a bit uncertain as the models have difficulty latching onto any
particular detailed solution, but expect the general trend should
be for increasing pcpn chances durg the early morning hours with,
at least, sct shra/tsra through the morning hours. There is some
guidance suggesting that there may be a lull in the pcpn chances
durg the early afternoon hours following the passage of a warm
advection wave. The second round of convection would be more
associated with a cold front pushing across the upper Mississippi
valley and Great Lakes. The srn portion of the front should stall
out as high pressure remains parked over the sern CONUS and lower
Mississippi Valley. The progression of the front will define where
the second round of pcpn lays out, with the general consensus
being that the front should push at least into cntrl or srn IL/IN.
Regardless of whether the front lays out across cntrl IL/IN or srn
IL/IN, confidence is high enough to keep the likely PoPs across
portions of the area along and south of a Chicago to Peru line and
then tapering off to the north and perhaps some drying over nwrn
IL by late Wednesday afternoon. Warm/moist advection should
continue through the day tomorrow, with temps reaching the lower
to middle 80s and sfc dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. Max
heat index values should reach the lower 90s across the swrn
portions of the CWA.
325 PM CDT
Wednesday night through Tuesday...
Primary concern is with the ongoing convection Wednesday night and
placement and intensity of it. In the most favored corridor, the
potential exists for at least isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms, as well as torrential downpours and flooding
concerns. Would expect wind field to be a bit disturbed from what
occurs during the daytime, with any lingering outflow boundaries
possibly playing a role in focusing low level convergence. Frontal
trough will gradually slide southeast, focusing convergence on the
larger scale, and multiple short waves in disturbed west-southwest
30-50 kt mid-level flow will move across the area. SB or MLCAPE
will diminish diurnally in the evening. Thus concern is there for
a window in the early evening for the best chance for any severe
storms with about 2000-2500 j/kg of CAPE and about 30 kt of 0-6km
Main threat wil be gusty to damaging winds and large hail. Confidence
is not the highest, but it appears the best focus will be into the
southwest 1/3 of the CWA on the nose of the LLJ and overall better
threat for any severe storms mainly south of I-88. There will
likely be additional waves of thunderstorms overnight, again
highest threat along/south of I-88, but with a lesser severe
threat as instability wanes. Regarding flooding concerns, 12z
upper air analysis depicted well the high moisture content that
will surge back into the area with PWAT values near or above 2".
Most intense convection will be very efficient rainfall producers
given the above and warm cloud depths near 13kft, so at least
localized flooding is certainly a threat to monitor.
On Thursday, cold front will slide southeast across the area, with
a chance for scattered showers and a few storms from lingering
overnight convection or some regeneration in the morning as
instability rebuilds. 70+ dew point axis will linger ahead of the
front into the afernoon along and east of I-55. Temperatures in
the lower to mid 80s and high dew points will again yield around
2000 j/kg of MLCAPE in the presence of 30-35 kt of 0-6km shear.
Focus for scattered convection will shift southeast with the
frontal boundary, and assuming instability can build as progged,
the aforementioned parameters add concern for at least an isolated
severe wind and hail threat, as well as heavy rain/local flooding.
The air mass will dry out considerably Thursday night and Friday,
with a very pleasant end to the work week and start of the last
weekend of August expected. Highs Friday will reach the mid 70s
to lower 80s along with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s.
Surface high will gradually give way over the weekend, with moist
air mass returning and southwest flow short waves moving over the
area due to trough passing to our northwest and Bermuda high along
the east coast. Low to mid POP shower and thunderstorm chances
will return on Saturday and continue into Sunday, with generally
seasonably warm and humid air mass lingering through early next
week. A weak surface cold front may press south Monday into
Tuesday. However, maintained low POPs from initialization as
instability reservoir will remain nearby on northern periphery of
strong mid-level ridging over the southeast.
For the 18Z TAFs...
Main issue for the remainder of the afternoon and through the late
evening hours will focus on winds. As a large area of high
pressure lowly moves to the mid atlantic region and trough of low
pressure and associated sfc cold front move a little quicker across
the nrn plains, the swly pressure gradient across the region is
strengthening. Sustained winds have increased to 10-15 kt across
the region. With still ample sunshine, deep mixing is allowing for
gusts to 20-25kt. Expect that winds/gusts will drop off with
sunset, but a generally sly wind to 10 kt or so will persist
through the night.
Forecast concern will quickly shift to cloud cover and pcpn
chances increasing through the late night hours tonight and
morning hours tomorrow. Deeper layer moisture is advecting off of
the GLFMEX and through the ARKLATEX area and into the middle
Mississippi valley. Dewpoints across nrn IL/IN have already risen
into the lower 60s while upstream dewpoints are in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Expect warm advection and increasing deep layer
moisture to continue to stream newd, bringing increasing chances
for tsra/shra through the late night and into the morning hours.
The models remain in relatively poor agreement on the timing of
pcpn moving into the terminals, so have maintained the general
trend of the going forecast, though did speed up timing a touch to
relflect the higher moisture return going on at the current time.
So, will maintain the general trend of increasing shra/tsra
chances as well as increasing/lower cloud cover. Expect that
confidence in timing should be increasing with subsequent runs of
the high res guidance get a better handle on convection timing and
325 PM CDT
To be issued shortly.
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