Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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332
FXUS63 KLOT 280527
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1227 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...
230 PM CDT

Through Tonight...

The immediate lakefront fog, at times appearing dense, continues
with a couple downtown Chicago cameras having shown dropping
visibility once again this early afternoon. According to City of
Chicago partners, the stratus remains just off the deck on Lake
Shore Drive. Will utilize SPS and Graphical NOWcast for messaging
of this dense fog into early evening. Dissipating time is
challenging to say. Dry air appears to be oozing its way down the
lake with improved marine webcams along Wisconsin and Michigan
shores, and would expect that trend to inch southward due to
increasing northerly wind speeds into the evening. Those stronger
north winds do not arrive in the immediate Illinois and Indiana
lake front areas until mid-evening, so expecting this to last at
least a few hours after dark.

The compact upper low over southeast Missouri this afternoon
continues to chug eastward. Weak but moist isentropic ascent and
transient mid-level frontogenesis is generating lift and some
showers over the CWA, mainly along and south of I-80 with a few
stragglers north. These showers should shift eastward early to
mid evening. Stratus will continue through the night with high
confidence. Cannot rule out some patchy drizzle at times beyond
the rain showers.

The north winds will steer in cooler air, with lows in the upper
30s forecast for many areas north of I-80, and lower 40s south.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
230 PM CDT

Tuesday through Sunday...

Generally cloudy spring weather will prevail through the week
a slow moving mid week system bringing more rounds of rain. Flow
off the lake will be rather persistent keeping lake shore areas
chilly with inland pushes of the chillier lake air varying by day.

Tuesday will be precipitation free as tonight`s system departs to
the east. Weak high pressure ridging extending southward from
central Canada will keep north to northeast winds in place which
will keep lake areas in the lower 40s while inland portions of
the Chicago metro warm to the upper 40s/50 degrees. Areas beyond
the metro will see mid 50s or so. Cloud cover looks pretty
persistent through the day though some erosion/breaks may occur
later on the afternoon.

Another longwave trough, currently swinging across the southwest
U.S., will split with a southern stream upper trough cutting off
and drifting eastward into the central and southern Plains. This
will follow a similar pattern to the systems over the last several
days and remain centered south of the forecast area. This system
will spread waves of moisture/ascent and resultant rain northward
into the area. High clouds increase Wednesday but it is possible
some sun makes it through early. Most, if not all, areas remain
dry through Wednesday afternoon, though some sprinkles could occur
in the far southwest late in the day. Waves of rain arrive
Wednesday evening and continue through Thursday. The closed upper
low and attendant surface low take their time passing so
damp,cloudy and potentially showery weather continue into Friday
but coverage of precip will likely decrease over what will have
occurred Thursday. Could see some snow mix in with any rain
showers far north late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Temps
Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday. Thursday will see a larger
north- south spread in highs as a warm front nudges northward,
though it may not make it very far into the forecast area. Should
see upper 40s to lower 50s Friday but low cloud cover may persist
as will lake side cooling.

Saturday may turn out to be decent for most areas with high
pressure expected to move over the area. Light flow and likely
some sunshine should allow a lake breeze to make an inland push
allowing some areas of the Chicago/NW IN metro to lose at least a
few degrees in the afternoon. Still early for these details but
something to keep in mind. Guidance suggests a weak northern
stream wave passing Sunday bringing clouds and possibly a minimal
amount of rain. Another longwave trough will be moving onshore
over the western U.S. before splitting allowing another upper low
to move across the central/southern Plains and up the Ohio Valley
early next week, with a general repeat of recent systems favored.

MDB

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

Ceilings are the main forecast challenge for the latest TAFs. MVFR
cigs are in place across the terminals late this evening and are
expected to fall back to IFR overnight. IFR clouds have greatly
expanded over the past couple hours over much of southern WI and
starting to seep into northern Illinois and should overspread the
terminals over the next few hours. Forecast soundings indicate
some improvement diurnally through the morning and early afternoon
hours back to MVFR. Confidence in ceilings tomorrow evening and
overnight is much lower though as models are in poor agreement. A
number show improvement to VFR while NAM based models indicate IFR
ceilings or fog will redevelop off of Lake Michigan and move
inland. Given the moist bias of the NAM, not ready to bite off on
this scenario just yet and will keep VFR conditions in the
forecast for tomorrow evening/night. Expect winds to remain fairly
steady state throughout the TAF period between 360 and 040 at
7-11kt.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
245 PM CDT

Dense fog continues over the far southern part of the lake this
afternoon and that will linger into early this evening. Expect
that increasing northerly winds will help to steer slightly drier
air down the lake with improvement happening during the evening,
though just how quickly is low confidence.

The increasing northerly winds after dark will build waves and
expecting Small Craft Advisory conditions by daybreak Tuesday.
These will continue through the day and likely into the evening
given the fetch.

The next low pressure passing to the south of the area will
increase easterly winds Wednesday night that will turn northerly
on Friday. Right now these are forecast to be 25-30 kt through all
three of those days, and will be enough to certainly support
Small Craft Advisory conditions along the Illinois and Indiana
nearshore areas during that time.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 9 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 3 AM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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