Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 112316
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
516 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...

Precipitation has ended for the night, with very cold and windy
conditions expected through the overnight tonight and the day on
Tuesday. Winds should begin gusting as high as 35 MPH this
evening, continuing through tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

A cold front is sweeping across the region at this hour, with
northwest winds expected to increase considerably this evening,
and persist through the overnight hours. Widespread MVFR ceilings
are occuring behind the front, and MVFR conditions should persist
through most of the night. Skies may start to scatter out toward
morning, though sct to bkn coverage will likely continue for most
of tomorrow. Winds should finally start to decrease late in the
day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 219 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Rest of this afternoon...

The snow band has set up about a tier of counties farther south
than expected, focusing on Walworth, Racine and Kenosha counties.
It will continue to drop south through the afternoon.
Additionally, temps have warmed into the mid 30s across that area,
so plenty of melting on roadways is occurring. There could be some
icy conditions develop as temperatures fall this evening.

Tonight through Tuesday night...Forecast confidence is high.

Cold. Any lingering snow will exit out Racine/Kenosha county by
around 7 pm, then look for gusty northwest winds to usher in a
very cold airmass. The winds will remain strong and gusty through
Tuesday, settling down Tuesday night.  Wind chills late tonight
into early Tuesday morning will drop to around zero or a few
degrees below zero. The coldest night will be Tuesday night with
lows in the single digits to lower teens. Fortunately, this will
be under a narrow ridge axis, so winds will be light to calm.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Forecast confidence is medium.

The NAM/ECMWF/Canadian all show a deepening low pressure system
taking a similar track to the system this afternoon, from southern
Minnesota to Indiana. There are some differences in timing, but
this one could bring an inch or two of snow to our northeast half
of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Mainly north and east of a Kenosha to Montello line, in Marquette
county. Areas from Madison and points south and west could stay
dry.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast confidence is medium.

We stay in this pesky northwest flow and there are some weak
pieces of energy that roll across the area. The guidance doesn`t
show any organization of concern, but we could see some flurries
or light snow from time to time. Little or no accum is expected.
Still cold through the end of the week.

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is low.

There is a lot of uncertainty for next weekend. The ECMWF is
suggesting a strong low pressure system will track just south of
the area, bringing a band of snow across southern Wisconsin. The
GFS is much farther north and faster with the low, with a solution
that is warmer and less impactful. The GFS would potentially have
rain and a mixture across the northern portion of the forecast
area. We`ll just have to wait for the model discontinuities to get
worked out before getting concerned.

MARINE...

The Gale Warning for strong northwest winds remains in place
through mid to late morning on Tuesday. Once that expires, a small
craft advisory will likely continue through Tuesday evening.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 10 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update and Aviation...Boxell


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