Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 282037
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RAP/WATER VAPOR COMBO SHOWS WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM IOWA. ALL MODELS WEAKEN SURFACE LOW AS WARM FRONT ACROSS
IA/IL TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS SRN WI WITH TIME. INDIVIDUAL CELLS
TRYING TO GET GOING W-NW OF KDVN THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STG/SVR
TO EVOLVE INTO SRN WI. COMBO OF THE WARM FRONT...INCREASING LLJ AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION INDUCED FORCING...WILL SUSTAIN LARGE AREA
OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT COLUMN MOISTURE THOUGH
ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE. SHOULD STILL SEE SOME DECENT AND MUCH NEEDED
RAIN TOTALS IN MANY AREAS. RADAR MOSAIC SUGGESTS SE 1/2 OF CWA MAY BE IN
LINE FOR A BIT MORE RAINFALL CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
QPF GRIDS LARGELY REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE MESO MODELS ARE
SHOWING HEAVIER TOTALS MAY BE SKEWED FURTHER NW...BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST SE 1/2 ATTM. WILL RETAIN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. HAVE BOOSTED
POPS EVEN MORE. NO BIG DIURNAL DROPOFF IN TEMPS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS SHOW PRIMARY VORT MAX OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY. HOWEVER
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC WITH SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WHILE 850 JET PULLS OUT EARLY THE MOIST AXIS LINGERS ALONG
WITH AN 850 TROUGH. THE GEM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON MORE APPRECIABLE
RAIN BEYOND 18Z WHILE THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS. WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER POPS FROM NW-SE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. CLOUD COVER LIKELY
TO BE VERY STUBBORN SO ALREADY TRIMMED HIGHS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT SE WI BY SAT EVE WITH THE SFC
TROUGH CONTINUING TO DECAY FROM NRN IL INTO LOWER MI. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER SE WI FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE VIA THE SFC
TROUGH. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRATUS TO CONTINUE SAT NT OVER SE WI
ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...MORE SO OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. HOWEVER...BELIEVE FOG AND STRATUS WOULD THEN DEVELOP WITHIN
THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WOULD THEN BUILD INTO SRN WI ON SUN WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MORNING STRATUS AND FOG IS PROBABLE BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME FOG WOULD THEN REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE SUN NT. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN ROLL OVER INTO THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR MON. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...

THE UPPER RIDGING WILL WEAKEN SOME OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE WEEK WHILE A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. SLY FLOW AND WARM...HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN WI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSTORMS AT TIMES FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN WITH RAIN
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASING 850 MOIST ADV. CONSSHORT CIG AND SREF CIG/VIS PROBS SHOW
MVFR/IFR CIGS WORKING INTO SC WI LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS IN SC WI THAN SE. HOWEVER LLVL RH
PROGS AND MET MOS SUGGEST CAUTION WITH IFR CIGS ALL THE WAY ACROSS
WITH THE STEADIER RAINS LINGERING FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING PER
12Z GUID.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING


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