Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
292 FXUS63 KMKX 291526 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1026 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this morning into early this afternoon. Severe storms and any flooding are very unlikely. - Above normal temps likely Today through Thursday, cooling off towards normal this weekend. - Another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Tuesday evening/night. A stronger system with additional showers / thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly continuing into Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued 1026 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Rapidly warming temperatures across the area as southwesterly winds bring in a warmer air mass this morning, with an occluded low just to our west in southwestern Minnesota slowly lifting northeastward through today into tonight. A pocket of clearing in the low`s dry slow may allow for temperatures to rise an extra couple degrees in southwestern Wisconsin before a cooler airmass pushes in from the west. As this cooler airmass moves in, a few thunderstorms may develop. Generally not anticipating any severe weather due to high shear remaining across the region and preventing strong updrafts, although an isolated storm that grows tall enough may produce small hail and some gustier winds. MH && .SHORT TERM... Issued 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Today through Tuesday: The stalled front currently spans from east to west across our CWA (roughly northern Milwaukee suburbs to Madison to Lone Rock), with areas along and north of the front experiencing intermittent fog, with a few patches beneath 1 SM visibility. The front is expected to begin a gradual drift northward over the next few hours, with gentle southerly winds developing and fog dissipating as it passes. Any lingering fog should dissipate before noon today. WAA south of the front will allow temps to rapidly climb to roughly 70 degrees today, with some sunshine peeking though scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds. Scattered showers are expected (possibly with some thunder) this morning, becoming more isolated and clearing out this afternoon. Severe weather and flooding from said activity are highly unlikely, given a lack of sufficient CAPE to balance with the 60+ kts of deep shear in place. Any showers / storms are likely to be shredded by the shear before they can become fully developed. Dry weather prevails this evening into Tuesday, with similarly warm daytime high temperatures (near 70) and mostly sunny skies. Sheppard && .LONG TERM... Issued 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Tuesday night through Sunday: Showers are expected Tuesday evening/night as a shortwave swings through. Instability will be diminishing as the wave approaches, with models showing a general decrease in coverage/intensity of precip as it moves into southern Wisconsin. Looks like enough forcing and moisture for higher confidence in precip (60%+) in the north, with decreasing chances towards the south. Still thinking there could be some thunder as the showers move into the area. High pressure will briefly return on Wednesday, with dry weather and mild temps into the low 70s. A stronger low pressure system is then expected to gradually lift through the region Wednesday night through Friday. Rounds of showers are likely (60%+) at times with this system, with some occasional thunder also possible. Models are still showing the highest chance for thunderstorms on Thursday, as the warm sector pushes into or close to southern Wisconsin. There are some indications that some of the storms could be strong to severe on Thursday, if the better forcing moves through closer to peak daytime heating and instability. A lot of time left for details to change, but this is worth keeping an eye on. Above normal temps are likely through Thursday, cooling back towards normal by the weekend. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 1026 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Ceilings between 1000 and 1800 ft are prevalent across southern Wisconsin, with a few pockets of 2500 to 3500 ft ceilings mixed in. By the late afternoon hours, expecting the primary cloud deck to be near 2500 ft, continuing through the evening. Clouds are expected to slowly scatter out tonight. Southwesterly winds will gust near 20 kt through this morning into this afternoon. Winds will shift to westerly and weaken from west to east late this afternoon into tonight. MH && .MARINE... Issued 420 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Low pressure around 29.7 inches will continue northeastward through Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin this morning, crossing Lake Superior early Tuesday. The warm front of this low pressure currently rests over central Lake Michigan, and will resume its northward motion by sunrise today, reaching the northern end of the lake by tonight. Areas of fog are expected over the lake this morning. Areas south of the warm front are expected to see the fog lift by this afternoon, while patches of fog linger along and north of the front. South winds to 20 kts are expected south of the front today, with gusty east winds north of the front (northern quarter of the lake). Nearshore zones may see south winds up to 25 kts, hence the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until this evening. East gusts to gale force are possible over the far northern tip of the lake this morning. When the front finishes crossing the lake late tonight, gentle southwest winds are expected for all areas. South winds to 15 kts expected Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, but storms are not expected to be severe at this time. Sheppard && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee