Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 190912
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
412 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE MCS WILL EXIT SE WI BY 10Z WITH LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ALTHOUGH
SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE.
THE SFC LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL WI WILL TRACK TO NORTH CENTRAL LAKE MI
BY 00Z WED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROUGH OVER SRN WI. THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI BUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI.  TALL...SKINNY CAPE IS NOTED ON
THE FCST SOUNDINGS AND MESO MODELS SHOW SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT SO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH MO CLEAR TO PTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AFTERWARD. LIGHT WINDS AND THE MOIST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE TNT.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LONG TERM WET PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF FORCING...SO KEPT LIKELY
POPS GOING.

WENT WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS GENERALLY ARE BUILDING UPPER RIDGING INTO THE AREA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS SETUP WOULD RESULT IN SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES IN AREA THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...TSTORMS TO END AT KMKE AND KENW BEFORE 11Z.
ISOLD BROKEN LOW STRATUS AND REDUCED VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN035-040 WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A SFC TROUGH. MO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TNT WITH FOG AND
LOW STRATUS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 05Z.



&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV


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