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000
FXUS63 KMKX 150833
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

DIMINISHING TREND TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS REMNANTS OF
MCS MOVES INTO DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AWAY FROM FOCUS OF WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION BEHIND MCV THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FORCING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
CROSSES REGION THIS EVENING.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REFIRE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MOVES
ACROSS SRN WI IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHERE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE LOCATED WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH STRENGTH/LOCATION OF LOW-LEVEL JET. MUCH WILL BE
PREDICATED ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING BEHIND MORNING
PRECIPITATION LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. WESTERN AREAS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO HEAT OUT AND REALIZE 1000-1300 J/KG CAPE ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH 40 KTS OF SHEAR BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SUPPORT DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK. OVERALL FOCUS LOOKS TO
BE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS IN NRN COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DROP OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WHICH
CLEARS EASTERN CWA AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. 925 TEMPS IN THE 20-22C RANGE.
SHORTWAVE OF NOTE SHIFTS WELL EAST WITH BROAD CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR
FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST AND GO WITH WARM
TEMPS IN THE 80-84 RANGE.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE BASED CAPES FROM THE NAM
BLOSSOM TO OVER 2000 J/KG WITH CIN VALUES OF JUST 56. POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DYNAMICS ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A
500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE RIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A PASSAGE
IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME. 0-6KM SHEAR DECENT INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...0-1KM SHEAR WEAK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNIMPRESSIVE. SO
THE SEE TEXT FROM SPC ON THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK LOOKS REASONABLE.
CERTAINLY NOT A TEXTBOOK SVR CASE BUT SOME POSITIVE PARAMETERS FOR
SOME CONVECTION ON THE STRONGER SIDE. CWASP VALUES IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS. COOLEST DAY TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS...THEN AS HIGH
SHIFTS EAST...GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTH. DIURNALLY DRIVEN LAKE BREEZE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SYNOPTIC FLOW NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BRING THE NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHORTWAVE RIDES THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SOME WARM ADVECTION NOTED AS WELL. CWASP NUMBERS U60S/L70S ON THE
ECMWF AND L/M 60S FROM THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR