Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 200828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...MEANWHILE SFC/H8 LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING
SOUTH OF WISCONSIN...ALONG A RATHER TIGHT H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE
STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MO AND IL.

MOISTURE WILL TRY TO SNEAK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT WE
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND REALLY DON/T BELIEVE
WE/LL BE ABLE TO SATURATE ENOUGH TO GET PRECIPITATION INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE ONLY THREAT MIGHT BE FAR SOUTHERN
LAFAYETTE AND GREEN COUNTIES WHERE SPRINKLES COULD END UP
MEASURING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH COOL
TEMPS CONTINUING. NOT AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR TONIGHT...AS THE LOW TO THE SOUTH
MOVES OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND 00Z FRIDAY...AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE FIELDS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON THE NAM LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH THE GFS QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP MIXING WITH WEAK MEAN LAYER
CAPE ABOVE IT. MODELS HAVE BEST QPF TO THE NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN AND
FOND DU LAC COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
THOSE COUNTIES GET CLIPPED DURING THIS TIME. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MILD
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BREEZY
WEST WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER
TO THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS FRIDAY WILL KEEP FAR EASTERN AREAS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WELL INLAND.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. QPF
OCCURS FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD ON THE GFS.

THE ECMWF IS NOW MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING THESE
FEATURES SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY BRINGING THEM INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS THEN CONTINUE PERIODIC ROUNDS OF QPF WITH SEVERAL
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA PUSHING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
GIVEN THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES...USED CONSENSUS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS UNDER
10KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD



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