Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 210522
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1122 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.UPDATE...

Cirrus is thinning.  Rather breezy southwest winds tonight, but
below any wind advisories.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Southwest winds just above the surface ramp up to around 50 knots
this evening. These diminish somewhat during the overnight hours,
so outlined this period of LLWS in TAFs. Gusty northwest winds
expected Tuesday in wake of a cold front. Cigs clouds around 4
thsd ft behind the cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 733 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017)

UPDATE...

Rather breezy southwest winds tonight, but below any wind
advisories.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Southwest winds just above the surface ramp up to around 50 knots
this evening. These diminish somewhat during the overnight hours,
so outlined this period of LLWS in TAFs. Gusty northwest winds
expected Tuesday in wake of a cold front.

MARINE...

Updated to Gale warning south of Wind point until 2 am due to
expected frequent gale gusts.  Otherwise, a Small craft advisory
in effect for 15 to 25 kt winds with gusts to 30 knots through
Tuesday afternoon. Strongest low level southerly winds expected
to be this evening. Possible a few gusts could reach Gale levels
north of Wind point. Strong cold front will pass across the near
shore waters Tuesday morning resulting in the winds shifting to
the northwest and strengthening once again after a brief 1-2 hour
lull.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 315 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is high.

Gusty southerly winds will persist through the evening hours and
finally diminish overnight. A cold front will drop through
southern WI Tue morning as low pressure tracks across southern
Ontario. The front will move through dry, although expect some
lower clouds around through the morning. Gusty northwest winds
will ensue in the wake of the front during daylight hours on Tue.
Temperatures will remain steady in the lower 30s northwest of
Madison and fall through the day in southeast WI.

Quiet weather is expected Wednesday, with lighter winds and
continued cooler temperatures.

LONG TERM...

Thanksgiving through the weekend... Forecast confidence is high.

There are hints that warm advection could lead to some light
precip such as freezing drizzle Wed night, but the better chance
of this happening is over northern WI given the depth of the low
level dry air in our area. The chance is very low, so no mention
in forecast at this time.

Another dry surface front will swing through southern WI on
Thursday, but this will have much lighter winds associated with it
than Tuesday`s front (tomorrow).

Then warmer air will stream into southern WI on Friday on gusty
southerly winds ahead of a more potent system. Temperatures in the
50s look likely and there`s a chance for some 60s. Rain is
expected in the wake of the cold front Fri afternoon/evening.
There is a chance that the upper trough could linger longer and
rain could transition to light snow early Saturday morning.

Quiet weather in the forecast for next weekend.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Southwest winds just above the surface ramp up to around 50 knots
early this evening. These diminish somewhat during the overnight
hours, so outlined this period of LLWS in TAFs. Gusty northwest
winds expected Tuesday in wake of a cold front.

MARINE...

Small craft advisory in effect for 15 to 25 kt winds with gusts
to 30 knots today through Tue afternoon. Strongest low level
southerly winds expected to be this afternoon into the evening.
Possible a few gusts could reach Gale levels. Strong cold front
will pass across the near shore waters Tuesday morning resulting
in the winds shifting to the northwest and strengthening once
again after a brief 1-2 hour lull.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for LMZ646.

     Gale Warning until 2 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ646.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for LMZ643>645.

&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Cronce
Tuesday Night through Monday...Cronce


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