Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 210527
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1127 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...

No changes at this point, with temperatures falling into the 20s
as expected.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

MVFR conditions should improve to VFR overnight into the early
morning hours on Wednesday. Winds will be a bit gusty tonight,
before settling down over the next few hours.

VFR will prevail through the day Wednesday, with northwest winds
becoming northerly with time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 854 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018)

UPDATE...

Temperatures continue to quickly fall this evening across the
area, with the western 2/3 or so of the forecast area already
below freezing. Some slick spots are possible on area roadways as
any remnant moisture or standing water begins to freeze.

MARINE...

West to northwest winds will remain breezy overnight tonight, with
a few gusts around 20 kt. The next period of concern will be
Thursday, when easterly flow is expected to develop. This will
lead to increasing wave heights on the west side of the lake. A
Small Craft Advisory seems probable for this timeframe.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 524 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018)

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

IFR to low end MVFR will continue for a few more hours, with a
slow improvement through the evening as drier air builds in from
the west. Temperatures will rapidly fall this evening as well,
which could lead to some icing on airfield surfaces where any
standing water remains. Winds this evening will be westerly,
becoming northwesterly overnight into tomorrow morning.

Expect ceilings to finally scatter out to VFR tomorrow morning,
with a cold but otherwise generally sunny day.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 331 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

Plume of moisture will continue to stream across SE WI well into
the evening...possibly a few hrs past midnight. This will only
serve to exacerbate the existing flooding. All rain will be out of
the state by early Wed mrng. Cold air will slowly filter into the
area overnight with temperatures steadily falling below freezing
from west to east. Depending on how long the rain lasts across far
SE WI and how quickly the cold air can make it that far east,
there may be a brief period of freezing rain in far SE WI around
06Z. At this time, even if it does happen, it should not be a big
deal since the precip should be ending about the time it gets cold
enough to cause problems.

LONG TERM...

Wednesday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will bring some sunshine and colder temperatures on
Wednesday, with highs a couple degrees below normal.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Warm advection ahead of approaching low pressure will bring a
chance of rain/snow on Thursday, with only a little precipitation
expected. The low will then move through Thursday night into
Friday, bringing widespread light precipitation. Models continue
to show a warm layer aloft, with near or below freezing
temperatures at the surface. A prolonged period of freezing rain
is possible Thursday evening into Friday morning, with up to 0.10"
of icing. This is worth keeping an eye on, as slick driving
conditions may be present for the Friday morning commute.
Temperatures are expected to warm enough Friday to melt any icing
by late morning.

Saturday through Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium:

A stronger low pressure system is progged to move through later
Saturday into Sunday. This could bring some accumulating snowfall
to at least northwest portions of the forecast area, depending on
the track of the low. The majority of models would keep the precip
as mainly rain in the southeast.

A consensus of models suggests high pressure will result in mainly
dry weather for Mon/Tue. The ECMWF and Canadian are showing a wave
later Monday or early Tuesday though, which could bring a little
rain/snow to the area.

MARINE...

Winds have become westerly this afternoon should remain offshore
into Wednesday before becoming northerly. Winds may gust near
small craft advisory levels overnight into early Wednesday
morning. Rain will move out of the nearshore areas of southeastern
Wisconsin tonight.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...99



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