Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 270750
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING OCCURRING BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES TONIGHT.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT. 700 MB
RH INCREASES TONIGHT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE
SATURATION IS ABOVE 700 MB.  THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT 700 MB WIND MAX
JUST BEGINS TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH THE 850 MB SPEED MAX JUST REACHING NORTHEAST IOWA.

850 MB RH INCREASES LATE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SATURATE.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR OMAHA LATE TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WOULD BE
FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS
RESULTING IN MAINLY VIRGA.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THISPERIOD.
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
BETTER DCVA THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT SPREADING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL CWA WIDE
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 LLJ TRANSLATES EAST INTO SRN WI AND
ENHANCES LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL SEEING EVIDENCE OF
RIGHT REAR QUAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ADDING TO OVERALL COLUMN VERTICAL
MOTION. PROGS CONTINUE TO TO SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL CAPE SO WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY. THE GEM-NH HAS A
MORE SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE QPF MAX ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS TEND TO FAVOR A MORE CNTRL WI CORRIDOR THOUGH
STILL CLIPPING NRN CWA WITH HIGHER QPF. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL
KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH SOME TAPERING
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT
FURTHER EAST.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SLINGER SOME MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ERN WI FOR A TIME WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOW LEVEL NE WIND
REGIME.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925 TEMPS RAMPING
UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. THE VERY WARM PATTERN IS PROGGD TO
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...BUMPED SUPERBLEND A SMIDGE ON TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PATCHY IFR FOG UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

SCATTERED DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED AND A STABLE LAYER AROUND 850 MB WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT.

LOOK FOR HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL
OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT.  SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND AFTER SUNRISE MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
A MAINLY LIGHT EAST FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR


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