Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 190504 AAC
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1204 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Tricky forecast for sky cover and ceiling height tonight. It
looks like low clouds are clearing out across south central WI
late this evening. Expect them to spread back in overnight with
ceilings in the 2000 to 3000 ft range.

Look for light rain to spread into southern WI later this morning
and dry up toward the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 949 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017)

UPDATE...

Northeast winds are gusty across southeast WI near the lake with
this initial surge of cooler air with a back door cold front.
Temperatures dropped quickly in Milwaukee and Kenosha this
evening. Winds will remain elevated through the night as the
pressure gradient tightens up due to low pressure approaching from
the Plains.

Cold air advection is leading to widespread low clouds. There is
drier air working into central WI, but the moist air associated
with the approaching system from the Plains will likely keep the
low clouds over most of southern WI through the night.

MARINE...

Small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon for
brisk northeast winds and high waves due to low pressure
approaching from the Plains. The headline may need to be extended
into Saturday night for lingering high waves.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 708 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017)

UPDATE...

Winds are shifting to the northeast near the lakeshore earlier
than inland areas with a cold front working its way south this
evening. This push of dry, cooler air with northeast winds will
lead to higher gusts during the overnight hours, especially near
the lake. Gusty east-northeast winds will persist through the day
Friday.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Winds are shifting to the northeast near the lakeshore earlier
than inland areas with a cold front working its way south this
evening. This push of cold air with northeast winds will lead to
higher gusts during the overnight hours, especially near the lake.
Gusty east-northeast winds will persist through the day Friday.

Cloud bases are around 3500 feet this evening and will remain VFR
overnight. These lower clouds should scatter out through late
evening, then mid level clouds will spread in tonight.

Rain associated with low pressure over the Plains will spread into
southern WI Friday morning. Dry northeast flow will keep rain
chances lower and lighter north of I-94. Ceilings could dip below
3500 feet with this rain. Rain chances diminish for the evening
hours, and then another round of steadier rain will spread into
southern WI early Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 333 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Friday..Forecast confidence is high.

The cold front is about 2/3 of the way through the forecast area
at this time and will clear the southeast by late afternoon. Temps
will continue to fall overnight behind the front and temporarily
clearing clouds will help along cooler conditions. Lows will be a
few degrees below normal in the upper 30s to low 40s. Clouds are
expected to increase from the southwest later in the night, which
should keep temps from getting quite as cool as they would
otherwise.

Clouds will continue to increase Friday morning as an area of warm
advection and a shortwave lift into the area. Looks like plenty of
lift and moisture for showers so increased pops. The best chance
for rain will be across the south half of the forecast area, with
northernmost areas likely struggling to see much precip. It will
be a cool day across southern Wisconsin between the cooler
airmass aloft, clouds, rainfall, and east to northeast winds off
Lake Michigan.

Friday night through Sunday...Forecast confidence medium.

Another large upper trough and associated sfc low will move from
the central Rockies and adjacent Great Plains nwd to nw WI or ne
MN as an occluded system by Sat nt. Low to mid level warm, moist
advection will bring fairly widespread rain to south central WI
Fri nt spreading over all of srn WI for Sat. The sfc warm front
will lift nwd into far srn WI Sat aft with a cold front to follow
Sat nt. There are chances of tstorms from Fri nt into Sat nt with
very marginal CAPE forecast. The dry slot will arrive late Sat nt
and into Sun but low level instability may still result in
isolated showers on Sun. The rainfall forecast is 0.50-1.00
inches. Temps will remain slightly below normal for the weekend.

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...Forecast confidence medium.

Temps will return to near normal for Mon on swly winds. However
and upper trough from the nw will pass and establish nwly flow
aloft for much of the new week. Cyclogenesis is expected just east
of the state as well. A cool and sometimes showery pattern is
expected.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected through the afternoon hours
(except for fairly persistent VFR in the southeast), with pockets
of VFR at times. Widespread VFR should return during the evening
hours.

A thin line of showers will exit the southeast by late afternoon.
Dry weather is then expected overnight.

Warm advection and a wave lifting through the area will likely
bring rain showers back to southern Wisconsin on Friday. Ceilings
should remain VFR much of the day, though some lower ceilings may
arrive from the south later in the day.

MARINE...

Gusty winds are expected into Saturday, veering northeast
tonight, and then easterly by later Friday night. Waves will build
to 3 to 6 feet tonight and then remain in this range through
Saturday. Will leave the Small Craft Advisory timing as is for
now.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Cronce
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Friday Night through Thursday...Gehring



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