Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 241750 AAB
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1250 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through Monday as southern Wisconsin
sits under the western edge of high pressure. The only exception
could be a little river valley fog later tonight into early Mon
morning. Few-Sct diurnal cumulus are likely this afternoon and
again Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 956 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017)

UPDATE...

Mostly sunny skies are expected today under high pressure.
Temperatures will be very warm once again, with most places
approaching or hit 90 today. The forecast seems to be on track for
the remainder of the day, so no significant updates are expected.

MARINE...

Light winds and low waves are expected for the first couple days
of this week.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 550 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF
period. There is some patchy fog out there this morning and
similar conditions are expected Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 235 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

Look for another day of hot weather across southern Wisconsin as
we remain under the western periphery of a massive upper level
ridge. High temp records are at risk of being broken again this
afternoon. Madison`s record is 88, Milwaukee`s is 92.

Monday and Monday night - Confidence...Medium
Another unseasonably warm day is in the works. Still looking at
582dm plus heights with lingering anticyclonic curvature around
the mid level ridge slowly shifting to our east. 925 temps will
still be around 23/24c so mid/upper 80s expected. Frontal boundary
draws closer and progs graze the far western cwa with some qpf so
have some pops in place there during the afternoon. Not much
movement of the boundary expected Monday night so pops will remain
confined to the far western cwa.

Tuesday and Tuesday night - Confidence...Medium
Mid level flow flattens with energy traversing northeast from the
northern Plains. This keeps better DCVA well to our north though
some weaker vort action expected to move through. Low pressure
passing to our north will drag a cold front through southern WI
during the afternoon and early evening. Severe parameters look
weak though enough CAPE noted in both the NAM and GFS soundings to
support mention of thunder. QPF not real impressive with the GEM
actually keeping QPF to our north. GFS and ECMWF also focusing
better precip amounts across northern WI. This will be the last
day of the unseasonable warmth as 925 temps will still be in the
low 20s ahead of the front. Front will enter the northwest cwa
early afternoon so more clouds and earlier fropa will likely
result in cooler temps there. But most other areas should see a
better rise with longer duration of pre-frontal warmth.

Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Cooler, drier and more seasonable airmass will be in place. 925
temps down to 10-13c with post frontal northwest winds bringing in
the much cooler air. High pressure will be building in from the
Plains.

Thursday through Saturday - Confidence...Low to Medium
Not too much in the way of rain chances with the ECMWF the only
model generating shra activity with a stronger upper air low that
spins up across the Great Lakes. The GFS and GEM are much weaker
with a rather progressive open wave. At the moment the ECMWF
solution is the outlier so not getting hopes up for the much
needed rainfall for the drier areas of the cwa. Expecting a
thermal ridge on Thursday/Thursday evening ahead of the front
dropping in from the north. ECMWF being the stronger solution has
925 temps dropping down into the single digits later Friday into
Saturday.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF
period. There is potential for patchy valley fog across the area
early this morning and again early Monday morning.

MARINE...Lake breezes are expected each afternoon today and again
Monday with light sly winds during the night and morning hours.
Wave heights will remain low.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...DDV
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Collar



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