Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 232036
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOW
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. PLAN ON SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...LIGHTER WINDS AND A
LAKE BREEZE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING HIGH PRESSURE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY BRING WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL IOWA AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE ALSO POINTS INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TROUGH
DOES SHIFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. DECENT ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SEEN AT TIMES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER AND EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

MAIN ISSUE IS HOW STRONG CAP WITH BE TO ELEVATED PARCELS DURING
THIS TIME...AS ELEVATED CIN VALUES REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 100 J/KG
RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW...CONTINUED
LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR DARLINGTON...WITH CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

AREA BECOMES FAIRLY CAPPED SATURDAY...AS 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM. DEW POINTS DO RISE INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY...BUT NO DECENT MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SEEN. FOR NOW...WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER
CAPES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS NIGHTTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...FOR
HOW WIDESPREAD AND HOW STRONG ANY CONVECTION WILL BE.

FOR NOW...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A RETURN OF COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY.
500 MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY. USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT
OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH RISK FOR SWIMMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ060-066-
     071-072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD



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