Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221536
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
936 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...MILD AND MOIST FLOW CONTINUES INTO SRN WI. THIS SHOWS UP
WELL ON THE IDODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS WITH BUBBLE OF HIGHER DEW
POINTS NUDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA. MANY VSBYS IN SC WI ALREADY
AROUND 1/4 MILE SO HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING THERE TIL 2 PM. NOT
CONFIDENT IN THE USUAL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO SO
ADVISORY LIKELY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED AND EXPANDED FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DENSE FOG LIKELY TO STICK AROUND UNTIL
STEADIER RAIN ARRIVES AND/OR THERMAL CLEANING ARRIVES FROM COLD
FRONT.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALSO FINISHED GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF ABV
FREEZING TEMPS AND LACK OF PRECIP.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...WILL LIKELY BE REDUCING VSBYS IN THE TAFS
DUE TO THE MILD AND MOIST FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE AND SREF VSBY PROBS SUGGEST FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI TONIGHT AND MAY VERY WELL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LIFR CIGS AND LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS
LIKELY. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO ARRIVE FOR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

PC

&&

.MARINE...DISCONTINUED SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN ZONE
DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVES LINGERING THERE.

PC/MG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL BE WATCHING END TIMES FOR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MODELS IN
GREAT AGREEMENT TAKING MAIN AREA OF RAIN OUT OF FORECAST AREA WITH
FIRST SHORT WAVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE BEHIND. AIR
TEMPS ARE RISING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING BELOW FREEZING
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

ONCE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN EXITS EAST THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL
DRYING BUT SATURATION BELOW 850 MB SO LOOKING AT CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

700 MB OMEGA WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE IN FAST NEAR-ZONAL FLOW CROSSES
STATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT MAIN ENERGY STAYING NORTH ACROSS THE
U.P. OF MI/LK SUPERIOR WITH DEEP MOISTURE LACKING. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG...WITH AN UP TICK IN DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. WAVE BRIEFLY BRINGS A COOL POCKET OF 925 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...THEN WARMING AFTER AS BACKING SW TO S
WINDS INCREASE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COOLER READINGS NORTH.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SUBSIDENCE WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MOVES ACROSS EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LIFT BACK NORTH BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BUCKLES AHEAD OF 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY DRIZZLE TO START...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOOKING FOR STEADY TEMPS WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END OF PRECIP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THUS LEFT LIKELY
POPS IN ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE
PRONOUNCED AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WHICH IS IN CONTRAST TO 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE DRY
AIR WOULD QUICKLY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST
A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A
DUSTING OR SO WEST BY MORNING.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE STRONGER LOW IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAS CHANGED THE PICTURE
QUITE A BIT FOR MONDAY...AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY PER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS...WITH THE LOW HAVING JUST DROPPED ROUGHLY 20 MB OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. COLD AIR WILL BE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE DEFORMATION SNOW MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
MODELS AND NOT SURE IF THE MODELS WILL SETTLE ON THIS...ONLY HAVE IN
2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW MOST PLACES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER
AMOUNTS IS THERE IF THIS SITUATION PANS OUT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE. THE SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK...THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING FOR AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO TURN
OVER TO ALL LIQUID PCPN BY 14Z...WITH THE RELATIVELY HEAVIER PCPN
LIMITED TO EASTERN TAF SITES. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO REMAIN AT
ALL LOCATIONS AFTER LIGHT RAIN EXITS EASTERN TAF SITES BY MID-
MORNING. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE SO WILL HAVE
IFR CIGS IN FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. LOOKING FOR STEADY
DRIZZLE AND MORE WIDESPREAD FOG THIS EVENING...WITH PCPN INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z SUNDAY.

MARINE...

WILL END CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 00Z SUNDAY WITH WINDS
EASING THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE FETCH LOWERING WAVE HEIGHTS IN
THE NEARSHORE. ANOTHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXACT TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF LOW...BUT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ056-062-
     063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV


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