Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 310238
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
938 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

NEW 00Z NAM HAS A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AROUND 1/4 INCH WITH A FEW AREAS UP TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE ON
GRASSY AREAS. THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...REACHING WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND INDIANA BY NOON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND...WITH THE SNOW POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY WITH IFR CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED AT A SLUSHY 1/4 INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON GRASSY
AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN IN THE MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
RETURNING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING STRONG COLD FRONT. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 TO
40 KNOTS...THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING BEGINS AT 4 AM AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING NORTH GALES TO LAKE MICHIGAN FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ALONG SHORE DIRECTION OF THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BUILD VERY HIGH WAVES THROUGHOUT THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THEN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED AT A SLUSHY TENTH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS.

ATTENTION THEN WILL TURN TO THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 45 MPH FROM LATE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE EAST...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONLY GET UP TO AROUND 40...WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S FOR THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL QUITE CHILLY FOR THOSE
THAT WILL BE VENTURING OUT FOR SOME CANDY TOMORROW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW 4K FEET AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ONLY SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LASTING FROM MKE SOUTH INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LAKE TEMP REMAINS AROUND 50 WHICH WILL CAUSE THE DELTA-T TO INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS VEER.  FAVORABLE FETCH
BUT LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL BALANCE EACH OTHER AND RESULT IN THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS COLUMN RH DRIES.  COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM LAKE MI FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EDGES
INTO WRN WI.  WITH 925H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -4C, SOME LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS BY MORNING.  CORE OF COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THRU SATURDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPS STRUGGLE TO
RISE INTO THE MID 40S.  THE LINGERING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST WL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RAPIDLY AGAIN SAT EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
A FEW EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY FALL TO NEAR 20.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS ON SUNDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE PINCHED OFF BY
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE SOUTH.  HENCE ONLY EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING TOWARD LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SLOWING DOWN EWD PROGRESSION OF AMPLIFYING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE REAR OF SLOWLY RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD BEGINNING
SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO BE
TAPED.  PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH ON MON.  NOT SEEING
MUCH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS THROUGH
LATER MON SO WL CONTINUE T FREE.

COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN WI ON TUE BUT COLD AIR SURGE WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS WHAT IS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.  85H TEMPS
WILL BE DROPPING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO.  MORE ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES WRT FOLLOWING SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES
ACROSS CONUS/CAN BORDER AREA AROUND MID-WEEK.  LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD FLATTER...WEAKER SYSTEM WHILE GFS SHOWING
MORE AMPLITUDE.  WPC BLENDED OF GFS PARALLEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
ALSO FAVORS FLATTER SOLUTION.  6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY 500H
OUTLOOKS SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY MOVING IN THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR A SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND...WITH
THE SNOW POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED AT A SLUSHY TENTH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS.

SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN IN THE MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-MORNING.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING STRONG COLD FRONT. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 TO
40 KNOTS...THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE EAST.

MARINE...

KEPT THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
NORTHERLY GALES TO LAKE MICHIGAN FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ALONG SHORE DIRECTION OF THE STRONG WINDS WILL
BUILD VERY HIGH WAVES THROUGHOUT THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ051-052-059-
     060-065-066-070>072.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS



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