Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 172124
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
324 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Wednesday night...Forecast confidence medium.


There has been a dissipating trend with light rain over srn IA
this afternoon with some very light rain remaining over far ern
IA. Will still maintain chances for light rain or drizzle over far
srn WI and se WI this evening into the overnight as fcst
soundings show good moistening up to 700 mb. Expect temps to stay
above freezing as the pcpn arrives. Light freezing fog may occur
over the nrn and wrn forecast area where temps will be below
freezing.

Strong low pressure moving ewd across Canada will lead to brisk
swly winds Mon aft-nt becoming wly on Tue with the passage of a
weak and dry cold front. The swly winds should bring drier air to
the region Mon aft with a dissipation of the stratus expected.
Warm advection and some sunshine should lead to high temps in the
lower 40s with milder temps for Tue. High pressure will then move
into srn WI Tue nt-Wed with cooler temps expected. Middle to high
clouds will increase on Wed with slight chances of light snow
late Wed nt toward central WI as mid level frontogenesis begins.


.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...Forecast confidence low to
medium.

The ECMWF and GFS agree on taking a low pressure area newd through
srn WI but with timing differences. Thu-Fri will be the primary
days for pcpn with the likely outcome of rain changing to snow
although confidence is still fairly low in the overall evolution
of this system. Afterward, the latest models delay the arrival of
arctic air while producing a mid level frontogenesis band of
light snow for Christmas Eve. Overall confidence in this snow band
is low at this time.



&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Cigs of 600-1500 feet late this afternoon
and early evening will lower to less than 1 kft for later this
evening into Mon AM. MVFR vsbys from light fog will continue with
with pockets of 2SM BR. Some of the light fog may become freezing
fog especially north of the Milwaukee and Madison areas late this
evening and overnight. Areas of very light rain or drizzle is
forecast across se WI from late evening into the overnight. The
pcpn will move out by 12z Mon with wly winds bringing drier air
and scattering out the ovc stratus from late morning into the
afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...Brisk swly winds will develop Mon aft and become wly for
Tue. The wind gusts may reach Small Craft Advisory criteria. Waves
of 1 to 3 feet are expected.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Monday Night through Sunday...Gehring



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