436
FXUS63 KMKX 031533 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1033 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon into Saturday
  evening, followed by additional precipitation chances for the
  middle portions of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1032 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The low clouds cleared out of southeast WI and we have sunny
skies. Drier air is moving in and dewpoints are dropping into
the lower 40s. With high pressure moving in and lighter winds, a
lake breeze is already getting established. This will move
inland through the afternoon as the general flow becomes
easterly.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 215 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Today and Tonight:

Drier airmass moves into southern Wisconsin today. Clouds will
hold on over eastern portions of the forecast area early this
morning, but expect to give way to mostly sunny skies by late
this morning and afternoon. Generally clear skies are expected
for tonight. Light winds also become established through
tonight with weak surface high pressure.

KPL

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 215 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Saturday through Thursday:

Models remain in fairly good agreement for this weekend and
Monday. Next mid level shortwave trough still expected to impact
southern Wisconsin by Saturday afternoon. It is a quick mover,
but it should provide lift over the area through early Saturday
evening. Thinking enough daytime heating and surface moisture
convergence will lead to at least scattered thunderstorm
coverage in this time range. Will mention this in our messaging,
but not sure all parameters are there for anything more than a
few strong thunderstorms.

Southern Wisconsin then gets another cold frontal passage in the
early to mid evening hours on Saturday. More dry air behind this
front for clearing and cooler temperatures Saturday night.
Rising heights aloft for Sunday into Monday for dry and warm
conditions across the forecast area.

The unsettled part of this forecast looks to be Tuesday through
Thursday with a broad upper level trough setting up over the
northern plains. Energy rotates around this trough into the
great lakes beginning on Tuesday. Lower and mid level moisture
will be in place for the potential of widespread rain and
embedded thunderstorms, especially Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Will continue to watch timing of this potential event.

The mid-week pattern should keep temperatures near or slightly
below normal on Wednesday and Thursday with at least some
showers and thunderstorms persisting across southern Wisconsin.

KPL

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1032 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The low clouds moved out and clear skies will prevail through
Saturday morning. A lake breeze is already getting established,
so the wind shift at MKE may be earlier than 18Z. Winds will be
light and become more easterly later this afternoon through
tonight. A line of storms is possible Saturday afternoon.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 215 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers exit Lake Michigan this morning. High pressure of 30.1
inches and lighter winds are expected later this afternoon and
tonight. Some low level moisture returns on Saturday ahead of a
cold front. This front will move across Lake Michigan on
Saturday evening, before high pressure around 30.1 inches again
moves into the region for Sunday. Winds are expected to be light
to breezy across Lake Michigan through the upcoming weekend.

KPL

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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