Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
828 FXUS63 KMKX 082059 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 359 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers expected Tonight through Thursday, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. No severe weather is expected at this time. - Small Craft conditions may occur Thursday due to north winds and building waves. - Periods of showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected Friday evening through Saturday. Strong storms are not expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 400 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Tonight through Thursday night: East winds have already developed in lakeshore counties behind the lake breeze, with widespread northeast winds developing tonight ahead of the approaching low pressure system. The low passes south of us tonight, leaving us with only 50 to 200 j/kg of MUCAPE in the latest CAM guidance. Scattered rainshowers are likely tonight, particularly after midnight. A few rumbles of thunder may occur, but no severe weather is expected at this time. Clouds and scattered showers linger Thursday, becoming more isolated later in the day. Sheppard && .LONG TERM... Issued 400 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Friday through Wednesday: A 40% chance for showers is forecast Friday evening ahead of a shortwave trough, rapidly approaching from the northwest. The combination of steepened lapse rates from CAA aloft and lifting / triggering from the PVA (both associated with the shortwave) may allow for some rumbles of thunder, but widespread severe wx is not expected. A 25% chance for continued shower activity is forecast on Saturday. A steady cadence of medium-amplitude troughs in the jet is expected to continue the pattern of occasional shower / thunderstorm chances through the end of the forecast period. Sheppard && .AVIATION... Issued 400 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions likely to continue this evening under mostly clear skies. A lake breeze front has recently finished crossing all counties bordering Lake Michigan (and has just reached KUES airport). Surface obs report east winds up to around 10 kts behind this front. Northeast winds around 10 kts expected tonight, with scattered rain showers approaching late this evening into tonight. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, though confidence is not high enough for inclusion in the TAFs at this time. Cloud ceilings gradually descend due to the rainfall, with MVFR likely (and IFR possible further south) Thursday AM. The lowest cloud ceilings, highest rain chances / coverage, and highest chances for thunder will be located further south towards the Illinois border, closer to the parent low pressure system. Isolated shower activity may linger into Thursday afternoon, but cloud ceilings gradually improve. Sheppard && .MARINE... Issued 400 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Low pressure of 29.5 inches over Missouri will drift northeastward into Illinois tonight, then exit east towards the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Variable winds up to 15 kts are expected for the remainder of the day, followed by steady northeast winds to 20 kts tonight as the low pressure approaches. Winds gradually back northerly on Thursday, accelerating to around 25 kts over the southern half of the lake. North winds decelerate Thursday night as high pressure of 30.0 inches approaches the Upper Great Lakes. Sheppard && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee