Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 260832

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
332 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017


TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium.

Initial surge of moisture advection producing scattered showers
across western CWA early this morning.  Expect this initial
surge to weaken early this morning as it encounters drier air
farther east.  However reinforcing push of moisture advection
ahead of approaching cold front should trigger more scattered
showers and a few t-storms later this morning and afternoon
across southern WI.  Prefer GFS solution with location of
frontal boundary at 12Z, however all short term guidance carry
weak low pressure over the tri-state area northeast across northern
WI this morning and into southern Canada by this evening.  This
track will carry a cold front across southern WI today, exiting the
far southeast early this evening.  Deep moisture in place along with
the passing front and enhanced synoptic lift from southern
extent of mid-level short wave should generate at least scattered
showers and a few t-storms across CWA today.  Showers may remain
more scattered or isolated over far southeast WI which will be
farther away from synoptic forcing.  Milwaukee record high is 88
today and starting out the day in the upper 60s or low 70s.  However
increasing mid-high level clouds should keep high temps just below
reaching record levels.

Showers will diminish from west to east during the afternoon and
early evening.  Increasing low level cold air advection will
likely pull in a period of low clouds from MN/IA for a time tonight
as temperatures dip into the upper 40s and 50s.

Wednesday - Confidence...High
A much cooler airmass will be in place. The cooler air brought in
by northwest winds. High pressure will be ridging into the area.
in the wake of the frontal boundary.

Thursday - Confidence...Medium to High
A brief thermal ridge works in ahead of another front that will
be dropping south into northern WI associated with low pressure
moving east of Lake Superior. 925 temps bounce back to the mid
teens celsius with more of a westerly flow ahead of the front.
Showers associated with this feature are expected to remain in
northern WI. The cold front drops in Thursday evening. Models are
not doing much with this feature its passage thus pops are mostly
on the dry side.

Friday through Sunday - Confidence...Medium to High
High pressure regains control and the influence of this feature
dominates through the weekend. The high will shift off to the east
into the eastern Lakes for Saturday and the NE US for Sunday. A
return flow sets up for Sunday but at this time the progs suggest
all precip will remain to our west in the Plains in association
with a low pressure trough there. The coldest 925 temps are
expected Friday night into Saturday morning with a gradual rebound
for the balance of the weekend.

Monday - Confidence...Low
The ECMWF and to a lesser extent the GEM show a quicker advance of
the Plains trough into the Upper Midwest with a more progressive
mid level pattern. The GFS keeps Monday dry with a slower more
amplified 500 millibar trough. Looks like we should see a bump in
the 925 temps deeper into the teens celsius.


.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...A few showers may brush the Madison area
early this morning. Otherwise, expect scattered showers and
isolated t-storms to develop later this morning and afternoon
across southern WI as a cold front sweeps through southern WI.
Ceilings may drop to MVFR due to passing showers. Increasing
northwest winds behind front may pull in a period of low stratus
across the area tonight.


.MARINE...Light southwest winds will back to mostly a south
direction this morning and waver between south and southeast for the
afternoon due to inland heating.  Wind gusts may reach 15 knots.
Recent MODIS imagery shows lake temperatures have rebounded back
into the upper 60s to around 70 well offshore while pockets of
cooler lake surface temps were located from offshore of Sheboygan
county south to Wind Point.  A cold front is expected to pass across
the nearshore waters late this afternoon and evening turning winds
to the WNW.  A tightening pressure gradient and the surge of cooler
air will result in increasing winds overnight, with gusts
approaching Small Craft Advisory levels into early Wednesday.  For
now, looks like most gusts will remain below 22 knots so wl hold off
on issuing Small Craft Advisory, but mariners should be prepared for
gusty offshore winds developing tonight.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
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