Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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941
FXUS63 KMKX 242002
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
202 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday - Confidence...Medium to High
Cold front combined with mid level energy may set off a few
showers across southern WI later this evening. Otherwise cold
advection kicks in later tonight and this will persist into
Saturday with low level thermal trough in place. So potential for
more cloud cover along with significantly cooler temps.

Sunday and Monday - Confidence...Medium to High
Another warmup is expected ahead of another cold front. The 925
temps for Monday suggest that the Superblend is too low. so per
collab with surrounding offices have nudges these temps to show
more 50s.

Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Cold front swings through in the morning. The GFS and GEM develop
a band of showers though mostly to our southeast. The ECMWF is
dry. Low level thermal trough hangs around through Tuesday night.

Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Mid level shortwave passes to our south though some influence of
this may work its way up here. The lower levels show some moisture
transport northward due a weak low that takes shape. The GEM is
most pronounced with this as light QPF spreads statewide. This is
a case where Superblend pops may be underdone. For now will leave
as is and see how future runs handle this.

Thursday and Friday - Confidence...Low
System shifts off to the east so cold advection kicks in for
Thursday esp on GFS/ECMWF. Blended guid for Thursday are
currently weighted towards the slower and more moist GEM while the
ECMWF and GFS suggest some higher POPS may be needed for Wednesday
with a trend downward for Thursday. Still time for models to come
to better consensus so for now let the blended numbers ride for
now.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR for much of the period. Looking at SKC
for the rest of the day. Expecting an increase in clouds with a
few showers possible with cold and front and mid level energy
later this evening. Cold advection later tonight into Saturday.
Some morning MVFR cig potential for Saturday with LLVL RH progs
trending towards favoring the NE CWA as the day wears on.

&&

.MARINE...Small Craft Advisory looks good. With cold waters the
mixing not as efficient as over land so think we should be OK
without a Gale headline.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Saturday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Saturday Night through Friday...Collar



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