Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 282317
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
617 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...Srn WI will remain in a broad cyclonic flow from tnt
into Tue due to the large low pressure area over Ontario, Canada.
A couple rounds of vorticity maximums are expected on Mon bringing
chances of showers and slight chances of tstorms. Gusty wly winds
are expected on Mon with wind gusts of 25-30 mph. Tue will be a
repeat of Mon but cooler.


&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Few-sct060-070 will prevail tonight while
sct-bkn040-050 is expected from late Mon AM into Mon eve. Small
chances of showers and a slight chance of a tstorm from late Mon
AM and through the afternoon. Gusty wly winds expected for Mon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 322 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Memorial Day...Forecast confidence is high:

Still looks like a few showers and a storm or two are possible
this afternoon, mainly affecting the northeast half of the
forecast area per latest mesoscale models. The front and
associated line of precip is expected to exit the east by early
evening, with mostly clear skies and dry weather overnight.

Another shortwave is progged to slide through on Memorial Day,
bringing a chance for showers and a few storms. The best chance
will be in the late morning afternoon and it won`t be a washout,
so looks like there should be plenty of opportunities to enjoy the
holiday. Temps will be within a couple degrees of normal, with
the warmest conditions in the east where some sunshine will hang
on the longest.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is high.

The upper low will continue to spin over Ontario the next couple
of days. Tuesday will basically be a repeat of Monday, with
scattered showers, a couple rumbles of thunder, and gusty west
winds. Best chance for showers will be during the afternoon hours
ahead of a shortwave trough swinging through the area.

High pressure will spread into the Midwest on Wednesday. That
upper trough will be exiting eastern WI by early afternoon. Aside
from some cumulus clouds, it looks too dry for any precip.

Thursday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A thunderstorm complex is expected to roll through the Plains
early Thursday and track across northern IL Thu afternoon, right
as a warm front starts to push into southern WI. Timing and
location are subject to change, so there is a chance for showers
and thunderstorms Thu afternoon/evening for our area. Preliminary
model soundings show very marginal instability.

It looks like a cold front moving down the lake will keep at least
southeast WI dry for Friday, but the convergence zone along the
front could help trigger a few showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon in south central WI.

Saturday and beyond... Forecast confidence is low.

The weekend looks unsettled at times. There is still a lot of
uncertainty so stay tuned.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Watching clouds and showers/storms developing along a frontal
boundary that has moved into the western forecast area at this
time. Looks like the northeast half of the forecast area will be
the focus for any showers or storms that develop in this area.
This activity will exit the east by around 00Z. Should see mainly
VFR ceilings with this next round per model soundings and upstream
conditions.

Quiet weather this evening and overnight will be followed by
another chance for showers later Monday morning into the
afternoon. Could be a rumble or two of thunder in the afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected tomorrow.

MARINE...

Westerly winds will be breezy Memorial Day, with gusts to 25 knots
likely. A Small Craft Advisory has thus been issued for tomorrow.

Could see winds to near advisory levels again on Tuesday, with
somewhat lighter winds Wednesday.

The offshore winds will keep waves on the low end through mid-
week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Monday Night through Sunday...Cronce



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