Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH
CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
226 PM CST MON FEB 12 2018

EDITED BY NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN, WI
340 PM CST THU FEB 15 2018

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2018 - 05/19/2018

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Wisconsin River
WDEW3            16.0   17.6   18.9    16   23    8   15    6    7
PORW3            17.0   18.0   19.0    44   63   28   41    9   20
:Baraboo River
RSPW3            18.5   21.0   23.0    40   46   22   24   <5    8
BBOW3             9.0   10.5   12.5     6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
BABW3            16.0   22.0   23.1    46   51   <5    6   <5   <5
:Rock River
WATW3             5.5    6.0    6.5     7   17   <5   11   <5   <5
:Crawfish River
MILW3             7.0    9.0   10.0    21   28    5    9   <5    6
:Rock River
JFFW3            10.0   11.0   13.0    24   33   17   20   <5   <5
FATW3            16.0   17.0   18.0     9   14   <5    6   <5   <5
NVLW3            10.0   11.0   11.5    38   39   22   30   16   24
AFTW3             9.0   11.1   12.2    38   38   11   12   <5    8
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3             8.0   10.0   12.0    11   14   <5    7   <5   <5
BOIW3             7.5   10.5   12.5    11   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
DARW3            13.5   15.0   16.0    26   19   15   14    8   <5
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3            11.0   14.0   16.0    60   35   32   <5   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3            13.5   18.0   21.0    63   46   17   10   <5   <5
:Sugar River
ALBW3            12.0   13.0   14.0    12   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BROW3             5.0    8.0   10.0    78   38   45    7   <5   <5
:Fox River
PCNW3             9.5   11.0   12.0     6   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
BERW3            13.0   14.5   16.0     9   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sheboygan River
SEBW3             8.0   10.0   12.0    12   17   <5    6   <5    5
:Root River
FRKW3             8.0   10.0   12.0    17   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Root River Canal
RAYW3             9.0   11.0   12.0    24   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Root River
RACW3             7.0    7.5    8.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
CDRW3            10.0   11.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Milwaukee River
CEDW3            11.0   13.0   14.0    24   34   <5    8   <5   <5
:Fox River
BRGW3            11.0   12.0   14.0    26   30   10   16   <5   <5
NMSW3            11.0   13.0   14.0    78   67   38   34   19   22

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0218 Z DH12 /DC1802122026/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 02/18/2018 - 05/19/2018
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Wisconsin River
WDEW3       9.2/    9.7/   10.6/   12.4/   14.7/   17.1/   19.3
PORW3      13.3/   13.6/   15.1/   16.8/   18.1/   18.9/   20.9
:Baraboo River
RSPW3      12.8/   13.3/   14.8/   17.3/   20.7/   22.2/   22.6
BBOW3       4.2/    4.4/    5.2/    6.0/    7.2/    8.2/    9.2
BABW3      11.4/   11.9/   13.5/   15.5/   18.2/   20.2/   21.6
:Rock River
WATW3       2.9/    3.1/    3.6/    4.2/    4.8/    5.4/    5.7
:Crawfish River
MILW3       3.5/    3.7/    4.4/    5.4/    6.6/    8.4/    9.1
:Rock River
JFFW3       5.8/    6.1/    7.0/    8.2/    9.9/   11.4/   11.7
FATW3      12.5/   12.8/   13.2/   14.0/   15.0/   15.9/   16.5
NVLW3       7.1/    7.7/    8.3/    9.4/   10.8/   11.9/   12.3
AFTW3       6.1/    6.7/    7.3/    8.4/    9.9/   11.2/   11.9
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3       5.0/    5.2/    5.5/    6.0/    6.9/    8.5/    9.4
BOIW3       4.7/    4.9/    5.2/    5.6/    6.4/    7.8/    8.8
:Pecatonica River
DARW3       6.6/    7.4/    8.8/   11.1/   13.5/   15.6/   16.5
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3       6.6/    7.1/    8.5/   11.8/   15.0/   15.4/   15.5
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3       8.2/    8.8/   10.1/   15.0/   17.2/   19.1/   20.3
:Sugar River
ALBW3       5.7/    6.2/    8.9/   10.9/   11.7/   12.2/   12.4
BROW3       2.4/    3.0/    5.3/    7.8/    9.1/    9.6/    9.9
:Fox River
PCNW3       6.0/    6.3/    7.0/    7.7/    8.2/    9.1/    9.5
BERW3      10.3/   10.6/   11.1/   11.6/   12.1/   12.9/   13.3
:Sheboygan River
SEBW3       4.0/    4.4/    5.1/    6.1/    7.2/    8.3/    8.8
:Root River
FRKW3       5.4/    6.0/    6.5/    6.9/    7.5/    8.3/    8.4
:Root River Canal
RAYW3       6.3/    6.7/    7.4/    8.0/    9.0/   10.4/   10.8
:Root River
RACW3       4.2/    4.4/    4.6/    5.0/    5.6/    6.2/    6.5
:Cedar Creek
CDRW3       6.7/    7.0/    7.4/    7.8/    8.5/    9.0/    9.2
:Milwaukee River
CEDW3       7.3/    7.6/    8.5/    9.4/   10.8/   11.9/   12.3
:Fox River
BRGW3       8.5/    8.8/    9.4/   10.3/   11.0/   12.0/   12.0
NMSW3       9.5/   10.0/   11.2/   12.4/   13.4/   14.6/   14.8

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0218 Z DH12 /DC1802122026/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 02/18/2018 - 05/19/2018
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Wisconsin River
WDEW3       3.0/    2.7/    2.1/    1.8/    1.7/    1.7/    1.4
PORW3       9.8/    9.5/    9.0/    8.8/    8.8/    8.7/    8.6
:Baraboo River
RSPW3       8.9/    8.9/    8.9/    8.8/    8.8/    8.7/    8.7
BBOW3       2.7/    2.7/    2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6
BABW3       7.1/    7.1/    7.1/    7.0/    6.9/    6.8/    6.8
:Rock River
WATW3       1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8/    1.7/    1.6
:Crawfish River
MILW3       2.5/    2.4/    2.3/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0
:Rock River
JFFW3       4.1/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5
FATW3      11.3/   11.2/   11.2/   11.1/   11.1/   11.0/   10.9
NVLW3       5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    5.8
AFTW3       4.3/    4.2/    4.1/    4.0/    3.8/    2.7/    2.7
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3       3.9/    3.9/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.7/    3.7
BOIW3       3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5
:Pecatonica River
DARW3       3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.8/    2.7/    2.6/    2.6
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3       4.6/    4.5/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4/    4.3/    4.2
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3       6.3/    6.3/    6.2/    6.1/    5.8/    5.6/    5.5
:Sugar River
ALBW3       4.3/    4.2/    4.1/    3.9/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8
BROW3       1.4/    1.4/    1.3/    1.1/    1.0/    0.9/    0.9
:Fox River
PCNW3       4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.1/    3.9/    3.9/    3.8
BERW3       8.9/    8.9/    8.9/    8.8/    8.7/    8.6/    8.5
:Sheboygan River
SEBW3       2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9
:Root River
FRKW3       2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0
:Root River Canal
RAYW3       3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9
:Root River
RACW3       2.6/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.4/    2.4
:Cedar Creek
CDRW3       5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1
:Milwaukee River
CEDW3       5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4/    5.4
:Fox River
BRGW3       6.5/    6.4/    6.4/    6.3/    6.3/    6.2/    6.2
NMSW3       5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    5.7/    5.6/    5.5/    5.5

.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$
HAHN



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