Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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UPPER MIDWEST SPRING SNOWMELT AND FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
800 AM CST WED FEB 15 2017

EDITED BY NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN, WI
450 PM CST THU FEB 16 2017

FOR A LINK TO THE NCRFC 2017 SPRING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK, WHICH
CONTAINS SEVERAL REFERENCE GRAPHICS THAT RELATE TO THE SNOWMELT
SEASON ANTECEDENT AND CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGIC CONDITIONS, REFER
TO THE NCRFC WEB PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

THIS OUTLOOK REFERENCES INFORMATION FROM THE FOLLOWING PARTNERS:
- UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)
- REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS (MIDWEST-MRCC AND HIGH PLAINS-HPRCC)
- US DROUGHT MONITOR (NIDIS)
- NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)

THE FOLLOWING 2017 SPRING OUTLOOK ISSUANCE DATES HAVE BEEN SET IN
COORDINATION WITH ALL NWS REGIONS AND NWS HQ:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WITH
PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTS ON:
  * THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2017
  * THURSDAY, MARCH 2, 2017

FLOOD SAFETY AWARENESS INFORMATION WILL BE DISSEMINATED
  * MARCH 13-17, 2017

NOAA NATIONAL SPRING OUTLOOK PRESS BRIEFING WILL BE ON:
  * THURSDAY, MARCH 16, 2017
==============================================

         **********************
          GREAT LAKES DRAINAGE
         **********************

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN QUITE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SINCE
LAST FALL. IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOVEMBER WAS EVEN WARMER, RANGING
FROM 4 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SEVERAL RECORD
HIGHS SET. DECEMBER TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL, BUT
JANUARY RETURNED TO A WARMER REGIME AGAIN WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
4-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER SAW NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WHILE
NOVEMBER SAW SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE, EXCEPT FOR THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN. DECEMBER AND JANUARY WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH 1.5 TO 2 TIMES THE AMOUNT OF NORMAL.

BUT DESPITE ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION, THE WARM TEMPERATURES
ALLOWED PERIODIC MELTING, AND KEPT THE GREAT LAKES FROM MAKING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER. LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN WI HAS
LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER, WITH SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH IN THE
4 TO 8 INCH RANGE, EXCEPT FOR THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS, WHERE A FOOT
OR PERHAPS TWO REMAINS.  THE AREAS WITH LESS SNOW HAVE WATER
EQUIVALENT VALUES OF AN INCH OR LESS, WHILE THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS
SHOW LOCALLY UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES. RIVER FLOW IS NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH MOIST SOILS AND FROST DEPTHS BETWEEN 2 AND 20 INCHES.
===================================================================

       **********************************
        UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRAINAGE
       **********************************

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE SINCE LAST FALL. IN
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 1 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOVEMBER WAS EVEN WARMER, RANGING FROM
5 TO AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS
SET. DECEMBER TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL, PERHAPS EVEN
A BIT BELOW NORMAL. BUT JANUARY RETURNED TO A WARMER REGIME AGAIN
WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MANY AREAS IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI BASIN SAW NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL FROM SEPTEMBER TO NOVEMBER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHERN IA, NORTHERN MO, AND WESTERN IL, WHICH WERE BELOW NORMAL.
THESE DRY AREAS STAYED DRY IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY AS WELL, WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI DRAINAGE CONTINUED THE ABOVE
NORMAL TREND.

EVEN WITH ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION, THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALLOWED
FOR PERIODIC MELTS. LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER IS SEEN FROM SOUTHWEST
MN INTO CENTRAL IA, AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SIOUX FALLS, TO
WATERLOO, TO MILWAUKEE. SNOW DEPTH GREATER THAN 10 INCHES IS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRDS OF MN AND WI, WITH AN AREA OF
2-8 INCH DEPTH FROM NORTHERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI. GENERALLY LESS
THAN 4 INCHES IS SEEN ELSEWHERE. THE AREAS WITH LESS SNOW HAVE
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES OF AN INCH OR LESS, WHILE THE HEAVIER SNOW
AREAS SHOW LOCALLY UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES. RIVER FLOW IS NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH MOIST SOILS AND FROST DEPTHS BETWEEN 8 AND 20 INCHES.
 ===================================================================
N TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  01/29/2017 - 04/29/2017

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:ROCK RIVER
WATERTOWN            5.5    6.0    6.5 :  16   14    8   10   <5   <5
:CRAWFISH RIVER
MILFORD              7.0    9.0   10.0 :  22   26   12    9   <5    6
:ROCK RIVER
JEFFERSON           10.0   11.0   13.0 :  28   32   20   18   <5   <5
FORT ATKINSON       16.0   17.0   18.0 :  15   13   <5    5   <5   <5
LAKE KOSHKONONG     10.0   11.0   11.5 :  40   38   23   27   18   18
AFTON                9.0   11.1   12.2 :  45   36   16    9    6    8
:TURTLE CREEK
CLINTON              8.0   10.0   12.0 :   7   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
BELOIT-1 SE          7.5   10.5   12.5 :   6   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
DARLINGTON          13.5   15.0   16.0 :  13   15    8    8   <5   <5
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER
BLANCHARDVILLE      11.0   14.0   16.0 :  38   31   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
MARTINTOWN          13.5   18.0   21.0 :  46   38    5   <5   <5   <5
:SUGAR RIVER
ALBANY              12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BRODHEAD             5.0    8.0   10.0 :  56   40    7   10   <5   <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
WISCONSIN DELLS     16.0   17.6   18.9 :  65   21   45   11   28    5
PORTAGE             17.0   18.0   19.0 :  93   50   82   31   51   14
:BARABOO RIVER
ROCK SPRINGS        18.5   21.0   23.0 :  69   41   46   23    7    6
WEST BARABOO         9.0   10.5   12.5 :  14    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
BARABOO             16.0   22.0   23.1 :  76   41   <5    5   <5   <5
:FOX RIVER
BERLIN              13.0   14.5   16.0 :  45   19   10    8   <5   <5
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SHEBOYGAN            8.0   10.0   12.0 :  10   12    5   <5   <5   <5
:ROOT RIVER
FRANKLIN             8.0   10.0   12.0 :  14   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYMOND              9.0   11.0   12.0 :  19   25    6    5   <5   <5
:ROOT RIVER
RACINE               7.0    7.5    8.0 :   7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CEDAR CREEK
CEDARBURG           10.0   11.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDARBURG           11.0   13.0   14.0 :  22   31   <5    8   <5   <5
:FOX RIVER
BURLINGTON          11.0   12.0   14.0 :  20   28    7   16   <5   <5
NEW MUNSTER         11.0   13.0   14.0 :  61   70   22   30    8   17

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 01/29/2017 - 04/29/2017
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:ROCK RIVER
WATERTOWN             5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.1    5.7    6.3
:CRAWFISH RIVER
MILFORD               5.1    5.1    5.2    5.5    6.6    9.5    9.8
:ROCK RIVER
JEFFERSON             9.1    9.1    9.2    9.3   10.1   12.3   12.6
FORT ATKINSON        14.2   14.3   14.4   14.4   15.2   16.7   16.9
LAKE KOSHKONONG       9.6    9.7    9.7    9.8   10.8   12.4   12.9
AFTON                 8.6    8.6    8.7    8.9   10.0   11.7   12.5
:TURTLE CREEK
CLINTON               4.5    4.6    5.2    5.8    6.3    7.2    8.8
BELOIT-1 SE           4.3    4.3    4.8    5.3    5.9    6.8    7.8
:PECATONICA RIVER
DARLINGTON            6.5    6.8    7.4   10.0   11.3   14.2   16.0
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER
BLANCHARDVILLE        8.5    8.8    9.1   10.3   11.7   12.6   13.6
:PECATONICA RIVER
MARTINTOWN            9.8   10.0   11.2   13.1   15.1   16.9   18.1
:SUGAR RIVER
ALBANY                6.3    6.3    6.8    8.5    9.9   10.5   11.3
BRODHEAD              2.9    3.1    3.7    5.3    6.4    7.4    8.9
:WISCONSIN RIVER
WISCONSIN DELLS      11.9   13.5   15.0   17.2   18.9   22.3   23.9
PORTAGE              16.5   17.7   18.2   19.0   20.8   23.0   24.0
:BARABOO RIVER
ROCK SPRINGS         15.3   16.0   18.0   20.6   22.2   22.8   23.1
WEST BARABOO          5.2    5.5    6.2    7.2    8.3    9.2    9.9
BARABOO              13.3   14.3   16.2   18.2   20.1   21.4   21.9
:FOX RIVER
BERLIN               12.3   12.3   12.5   12.9   13.6   14.5   15.5
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SHEBOYGAN             4.3    4.5    5.4    6.2    7.4    8.0   10.8
:ROOT RIVER
FRANKLIN              4.6    5.6    6.0    6.8    7.2    8.2    8.4
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYMOND               5.0    5.6    6.6    7.5    8.5   10.4   11.3
:ROOT RIVER
RACINE                3.9    4.2    4.5    4.8    5.3    6.2    7.2
:CEDAR CREEK
CEDARBURG             6.9    7.0    7.4    8.1    8.5    9.0    9.7
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDARBURG             7.4    7.6    8.6    9.4   10.8   12.0   12.7
:FOX RIVER
BURLINGTON            8.1    8.2    8.6    9.8   10.8   11.6   12.4
NEW MUNSTER           8.9    9.0    9.9   11.8   12.8   13.7   14.6

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 01/29/2017 - 04/29/2017
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:ROCK RIVER
WATERTOWN             3.1    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.3    2.1    2.1
:CRAWFISH RIVER
MILFORD               3.2    3.2    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.3    2.2
:ROCK RIVER
JEFFERSON             5.7    5.5    4.9    4.5    4.3    4.0    3.9
FORT ATKINSON        12.4   12.3   11.9   11.6   11.4   11.2   11.1
LAKE KOSHKONONG       8.0    7.7    7.2    6.1    5.8    5.8    5.8
AFTON                 7.0    6.7    6.2    5.7    4.8    4.3    4.1
:TURTLE CREEK
CLINTON               4.1    4.1    4.1    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.9
BELOIT-1 SE           3.9    3.8    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.5
:PECATONICA RIVER
DARLINGTON            3.5    3.5    3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER
BLANCHARDVILLE        5.7    5.6    5.4    5.2    4.9    4.8    4.6
:PECATONICA RIVER
MARTINTOWN            7.7    7.4    7.1    6.8    6.5    6.1    6.0
:SUGAR RIVER
ALBANY                4.6    4.5    4.3    4.2    4.1    4.0    4.0
BRODHEAD              1.7    1.6    1.4    1.4    1.2    1.2    1.1
:WISCONSIN RIVER
WISCONSIN DELLS       3.9    3.9    3.5    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.2
PORTAGE              11.2   10.9   10.4   10.1    9.6    9.5    9.3
:BARABOO RIVER
ROCK SPRINGS         10.4   10.3   10.2   10.0    9.8    9.6    9.5
WEST BARABOO          3.0    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8
BARABOO               8.7    8.7    8.5    8.3    8.1    7.9    7.8
:FOX RIVER
BERLIN               10.8   10.7   10.3    9.8    9.5    9.1    8.9
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SHEBOYGAN             2.4    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0
:ROOT RIVER
FRANKLIN              2.6    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.0    2.0
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYMOND               3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.6
:ROOT RIVER
RACINE                2.9    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.4
:CEDAR CREEK
CEDARBURG             5.8    5.8    5.7    5.7    5.5    5.5    5.4
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDARBURG             6.0    5.9    5.8    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5
:FOX RIVER
BURLINGTON            7.0    6.9    6.7    6.5    6.3    6.2    6.1
NEW MUNSTER           6.7    6.6    6.3    6.1    5.9    5.7    5.6

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/MKX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

$$

HAHN



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