Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FGUS73 KMKX 070312
ESFMKX
WIC077-047-039-117-111-021-027-131-089-049-025-055-133-079-
065-045-105-127-101-059-080300-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
904 PM CST THU MAR 06 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
ISSUANCE OF THE LAST OUTLOOK TWO WEEKS AGO.   PRECIPITATION DURING
THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAS BEEN WITHIN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS THE
AREA, CAUSING LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR PROBABILISTIC DISTRIBUTIONS THIS
ISSUANCE.  ICE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION AND FLOODING RISK
FACTOR ACROSS THE REGION.

ADDITIONALLY, FROST DEPTHS ACROSS THE REGION ARE DEEPER THAN WHAT IS
USUALLY OBSERVED AT THIS POINT IN THE SEASON.  IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW THIS WILL IMPACT RUNOFF RATES.  A FAST MELT WILL HAVE INCREASED
RUNOFF RATES AS INFILTRATION WILL BE LIMITED.  AN EXTENDED MELTING
PERIOD WILL ALLOW MELT WATER TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOIL
AND AID IN THE THAWING PROCESS. AT THIS TIME, METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF A RAPID AND
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

FLOOD RISK DUE TO ICE AND FROZEN GROUND ENHANCED RUNOFF ARE NOT
CAPTURED WELL WITHIN OUR HYDROLOGIC MODEL SIMULATIONS, SO RISK IN
AREAS WHERE THESE COMPLICATIONS EXIST MAY SEE HIGHER LEVELS THAN
WHAT IS CAPTURED IN OUR CURRENT PROBABILISTIC DISTRIBUTIONS.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:ROCK RIVER
WATERTOWN            5.5    6.0    6.5 :  26   13   13    6   <5   <5
:CRAWFISH RIVER
MILFORD              7.0    9.0   10.0 :  36   29   13   10    7   <5
:ROCK RIVER
JEFFERSON           10.0   11.0   13.0 :  47   33   33   20    6   <5
FORT ATKINSON       16.0   17.0   18.0 :  20   16    9    6   <5   <5
LAKE KOSHKONONG     10.0   11.0   11.5 :  63   35   38   27   29   20
AFTON                9.0   11.1   12.2 :  53   35   20   12   10    9
:TURTLE CREEK
CLINTON              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  16    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
DARLINGTON          13.5   15.0   16.0 :  56   15   24    9    9   <5
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER
BLANCHARDVILLE      11.0   14.0   16.0 :  13   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
MARTINTOWN          13.5   18.0   21.0 :  56   29   <5    9   <5   <5
:SUGAR RIVER
ALBANY              12.0   13.0   14.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BRODHEAD             5.0    8.0   10.0 :  83   30   43    9   <5   <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
PORTAGE             17.0   18.0   19.0 :  94   45   83   25   55   10
:BARABOO RIVER
ROCK SPRINGS        18.5   21.0   23.0 :  73   49   44   27   <5   12
WEST BARABOO         9.0   10.5   12.5 :  12   15   <5    7   <5   <5
BARABOO             16.0   22.0   23.1 :  76   52   <5    7   <5    6
:FOX RIVER
BERLIN              13.0   14.5   16.0 :  33   24   <5    9   <5   <5
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SHEBOYGAN            8.0   10.0   12.0 :  16   15    6    6   <5   <5
:ROOT RIVER
FRANKLIN             8.0   10.0   12.0 :  38   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYMOND              9.0   11.0   12.0 :  47   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ROOT RIVER
RACINE               7.0    7.5    8.0 :  18    7    9   <5   <5   <5
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDARBURG           11.0   13.0   14.0 :  50   16    7   <5   <5   <5
:FOX RIVER
BURLINGTON          11.0   12.0   14.0 :  58   23   13    9   <5   <5
NEW MUNSTER         10.0   13.0   14.0 : >95   80   66   26   38   15

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:ROCK RIVER
WATERTOWN             3.8    4.2    4.6    5.0    5.5    6.3    6.6
:CRAWFISH RIVER
MILFORD               4.7    4.8    5.4    6.3    7.8    9.6   10.5
:ROCK RIVER
JEFFERSON             7.6    8.4    8.9   10.0   11.4   12.7   13.3
FORT ATKINSON        13.5   14.0   14.3   15.0   15.8   17.2   17.7
LAKE KOSHKONONG       8.8    9.3    9.8   10.6   11.7   13.0   13.7
AFTON                 7.3    7.8    8.4    9.3   10.7   12.4   12.9
:TURTLE CREEK
CLINTON               5.4    5.7    6.0    6.4    7.3    9.4    9.9
:PECATONICA RIVER
DARLINGTON            5.8    7.1   11.3   14.0   15.0   16.0   16.6
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER
BLANCHARDVILLE        7.2    7.7    8.2    9.2   10.4   11.8   12.6
:PECATONICA RIVER
MARTINTOWN            8.7    9.1   11.1   14.3   16.0   17.3   17.9
:SUGAR RIVER
ALBANY                6.8    7.4    9.8   10.7   11.4   11.7   12.5
BRODHEAD              3.7    4.2    5.8    7.5    8.6    9.1    9.8
:WISCONSIN RIVER
PORTAGE              16.9   17.6   18.4   19.1   20.2   21.6   22.0
:BARABOO RIVER
ROCK SPRINGS         15.0   16.5   18.5   20.5   22.1   22.9   24.1
WEST BARABOO          5.0    5.6    6.3    7.1    8.0    9.3   11.1
BARABOO              12.8   14.6   16.4   17.8   19.4   21.2   22.7
:FOX RIVER
BERLIN               11.5   11.8   12.1   12.7   13.2   14.3   14.6
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SHEBOYGAN             5.0    5.6    6.0    6.8    7.7    8.6   11.3
:ROOT RIVER
FRANKLIN              6.6    6.9    7.3    7.8    8.3    8.8    9.3
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYMOND               6.4    7.0    7.7    8.8    9.8   10.7   11.2
:ROOT RIVER
RACINE                4.8    5.0    5.4    6.1    6.8    7.5    8.0
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDARBURG             9.0    9.3   10.2   11.2   11.7   12.7   14.2
:FOX RIVER
BURLINGTON           10.0   10.2   10.5   11.2   11.7   12.2   12.9
NEW MUNSTER          12.0   12.2   12.6   13.6   14.4   15.0   15.8

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:ROCK RIVER
WATERTOWN             1.7    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5
:CRAWFISH RIVER
MILFORD               2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0
:ROCK RIVER
JEFFERSON             3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
FORT ATKINSON        10.9   10.9   10.8   10.8   10.8   10.8   10.8
LAKE KOSHKONONG       5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7
AFTON                 3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1
:TURTLE CREEK
CLINTON               3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5
:PECATONICA RIVER
DARLINGTON            2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER
BLANCHARDVILLE        4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.9    3.9
:PECATONICA RIVER
MARTINTOWN            4.6    4.6    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
:SUGAR RIVER
ALBANY                4.0    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.8    3.7    3.7
BRODHEAD              1.2    1.2    1.1    1.0    0.9    0.8    0.8
:WISCONSIN RIVER
PORTAGE               9.4    9.4    9.4    9.1    8.9    8.7    8.7
:BARABOO RIVER
ROCK SPRINGS          8.1    8.1    8.1    8.1    8.1    8.1    8.1
WEST BARABOO          2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5
BARABOO               6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.1    6.1
:FOX RIVER
BERLIN                8.1    8.1    8.0    8.0    8.0    8.0    7.9
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SHEBOYGAN             1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
:ROOT RIVER
FRANKLIN              2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYMOND               1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9
:ROOT RIVER
RACINE                2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDARBURG             5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4
:FOX RIVER
BURLINGTON            5.9    5.9    5.9    5.9    5.9    5.9    5.8
NEW MUNSTER           5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.3

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/MKX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE MARCH.

$$
HAHN



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