Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
000
FGUS73 KMKX 201950
ESFMKX
WIC077-047-039-117-111-021-027-131-089-049-025-055-133-079-
065-045-105-127-101-059-222330-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
132 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 132 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

THIS SNOWMELT OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS IN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES IN
WISCONSIN.

GENERAL CONDITION DISCUSSION

SPRING AND VERY EARLY SUMMER 2013 WERE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE NCRFC REGION OF THE HUDSON BAY,
UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS.   SUMMER
PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
AND THE RED RIVER HUDSON BAY WATERSHEDS.  SUMMER PRECIPITATION WAS
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOURIS
RIVER HUDSON BAY WATERSHEDS.   HEADING INTO THE FALL, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND RED
RIVER WATERSHEDS WITH NEUTRAL TO SOMEWHAT WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOURIS RIVER WATERSHEDS.

FALL PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, IOWA, ILLINOIS, MISSOURI, NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  FALL PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA, CENTRAL MINNESOTA, UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

IN GENERAL, THE SOIL CONDITIONS WERE SOMEWHAT DRY HEADING INTO
WINTER IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI BASIN, CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS IOWA, ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI, WITH NEAR
NORMAL RIVER FLOWS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.   LONG TERM DROUGHT PERSISTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WESTERN WISCONSIN, MUCH OF IOWA,
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.  IN THE GREAT LAKES, FALL
STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL CONDITIONS WERE WETTER THAN NORMAL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE CONDITIONS WERE CLOSER
TO LONG TERM AVERAGES.   RIVERS IN THE HUDSON BAY WATERSHEDS WITHIN
NORTH DAKOTA WERE FLOWING AT ABOVE NORMAL RATES HEADING INTO FREEZE-
UP IN RESPONSE TO THE FALL PRECIPITATION.   THE RIVERS ON THE
MINNESOTA SIDE OF THE RED RIVER WERE AT NEAR NORMAL FLOW RATES DUE
TO LOWER FALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARIES BY BASIN

FLOOD POTENTIALS ANALYSES ARE BASED ON CURRENT SOIL AND SNOW
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A BROAD SPECTRUM OF POTENTIAL SPRING
WEATHER CONDITIONS REFLECTED IN THE CLIMATE RECORD FROM 1949 TO
2012.  THE ANALYSES CONTAINED HEREIN ARE VERY GENERAL.  A QUANTIFIED
RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY IS AVAILABLE THROUGH
WEB GRAPHICS AND TABLES AT
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/LONG_RANGE.PHP?PERCENT=50

GREAT LAKES

THE GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS OF MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN ARE
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE DECEMBER FREEZE-UP.  WINTER PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN UP TO 75 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASINS
AND NEAR TO 25 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON
BASINS.  SNOW COVER IS DEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH WATER CONTENTS
RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN BASINS TO 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.  SNOW WATER
CONTENTS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASINS ARE 4 TO 6 INCHES IN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN, AND 2 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
GROUND FROST WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS 2 TO 4 FEET, WHILE EAST OF THE
LAKE, FROST PENETRATION IS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
LOWER MICHIGAN, INCREASING TO NEAR 6 INCHES IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.  THE DEEPEST FROST IN LOWER MICHIGAN IS IN THE
EAST WHERE UP TO 20 INCHES HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA WATERSHEDS HAVE A
MODERATELY INCREASED RISK FOR FLOODING WITH A HIGH RISK FOR FLOODING
IN THE GRAND BASIN, ESPECIALLY FROM IONIA TO LAKE MICHIGAN.  FLOOD
RISK IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MINNESOTA AND UPPER MICHIGAN WATERSHEDS.
FLOOD RISK IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WATERSHEDS.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN

THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATERSHED IS GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE
DECEMBER FREEZE-UP.  WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ACROSS THE REST OF BASIN ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO ST LOUIS.  SNOW COVER IS PRESENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WATERSHED.  SNOW WATER CONTENTS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN RANGE
FROM 2 INCHES IN THE SOUTH TO 5 INCHES IN THE NORTH.  SNOW WATER
CONTENTS ACROSS IOWA RANGE FROM ONE-HALF INCH IN THE DES MOINES
BASIN, TO 2 INCHES IN THE EASTERN BASINS.  ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI, SNOW WATER CONTENTS ARE 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CHICAGO AREA,
DECREASING TO 1.5 INCHES FROM MOLINE TO PEORIA, AND AROUND ONE-HALF
INCH IN AND AROUND ST LOUIS.  DUE TO THE PERSISTENT COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WINTER, THE GROUND HAS FROZEN
DOWN TO 3 FEET ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN, 2 FEET ACROSS IOWA
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS, AND 1 FOOT OF FROST IS OBSERVED ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

THERE IS A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED RISK OF SPRING FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF
WISCONSIN, THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA.  RISK IS BELOW NORMAL IN THE SOUTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN, INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN IOWA, WESTERN
ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF MINNESOTA.  THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS
A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL RISK OF MINOR FLOODING WITH A DIMINISHED
RISK FOR MODERATE OR HIGHER LEVEL FLOODING.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:ROCK RIVER
WATERTOWN            5.5    6.0    6.5 :  33   12   18    6   10   <5
:CRAWFISH RIVER
MILFORD              7.0    9.0   10.0 :  41   27   20    7   10   <5
:ROCK RIVER
JEFFERSON           10.0   11.0   13.0 :  52   32   38   16    9   <5
FORT ATKINSON       16.0   17.0   18.0 :  30   15   13   <5   <5   <5
LAKE KOSHKONONG     10.0   11.0   11.5 :  61   33   41   24   38   16
AFTON                9.0   11.1   12.2 :  53   33   27    9   10    7
:TURTLE CREEK
CLINTON              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  23    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
DARLINGTON          13.5   15.0   16.0 :  66   13   33    9   18   <5
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER
BLANCHARDVILLE      11.0   14.0   16.0 :  20   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
MARTINTOWN          13.5   18.0   21.0 :  63   30   10    9   <5   <5
:SUGAR RIVER
BRODHEAD             5.0    8.0   10.0 :  90   35   61    9    7   <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
PORTAGE             17.0   18.0   19.0 :  93   45   80   25   50   10
:BARABOO RIVER
ROCK SPRINGS        18.5   21.0   23.0 :  66   49   40   26    9   10
WEST BARABOO         9.0   10.5   12.5 :  18   13   <5    6   <5   <5
BARABOO             16.0   22.0   23.1 :  70   52   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FOX RIVER
BERLIN              13.0   14.5   16.0 :  46   24   10    9   <5   <5
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SHEBOYGAN            8.0   10.0   12.0 :  35   13   15    6    9   <5
:ROOT RIVER
FRANKLIN             8.0   10.0   12.0 :  43   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYMOND              9.0   11.0   12.0 :  26   13    7   <5   <5   <5
:ROOT RIVER
RACINE               7.0    7.5    8.0 :  13    7   10   <5    7   <5
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDARBURG           11.0   13.0   14.0 :  52   16   24   <5    9   <5
:FOX RIVER
BURLINGTON          11.0   12.0   14.0 :  56   23   21    9   <5   <5
NEW MUNSTER         10.0   13.0   14.0 : >95   80   63   26   38   16

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:ROCK RIVER
WATERTOWN             4.0    4.2    4.5    5.0    5.9    6.5    6.8
:CRAWFISH RIVER
MILFORD               4.8    5.1    5.6    6.5    8.4   10.4   11.8
:ROCK RIVER
JEFFERSON             8.0    8.2    8.8   10.2   12.0   13.0   13.2
FORT ATKINSON        13.6   13.9   14.3   15.0   16.2   17.2   17.5
LAKE KOSHKONONG       9.1    9.2    9.7   10.7   12.1   13.1   13.7
AFTON                 7.6    7.8    8.3    9.5   11.2   12.2   12.9
:TURTLE CREEK
CLINTON               5.3    5.4    6.0    6.5    7.9    9.1   10.2
:PECATONICA RIVER
DARLINGTON            7.2    9.2   12.7   14.4   15.7   16.8   17.3
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER
BLANCHARDVILLE        7.2    7.8    8.5    9.5   10.8   12.3   12.8
:PECATONICA RIVER
MARTINTOWN            9.3    9.9   12.4   15.0   16.8   18.4   20.0
:SUGAR RIVER
BRODHEAD              4.1    5.4    7.1    8.8    9.4    9.8   10.2
:WISCONSIN RIVER
PORTAGE              16.7   17.4   18.2   19.0   20.1   21.5   21.9
:BARABOO RIVER
ROCK SPRINGS         14.4   15.1   17.7   20.0   22.2   23.2   23.6
WEST BARABOO          4.9    5.2    6.1    6.9    8.2    9.9   10.2
BARABOO              12.8   13.3   16.0   17.6   19.6   21.7   21.9
:FOX RIVER
BERLIN               11.6   11.8   12.1   13.0   13.7   14.8   15.5
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SHEBOYGAN             5.6    5.6    6.3    7.3    8.5   12.0   13.0
:ROOT RIVER
FRANKLIN              6.9    7.0    7.2    7.8    8.4    9.1    9.4
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYMOND               6.0    6.5    7.0    7.9    9.1   10.8   12.1
:ROOT RIVER
RACINE                4.7    4.8    5.1    5.5    6.3    7.8    8.2
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDARBURG             9.3    9.6   10.3   11.2   13.0   14.1   16.4
:FOX RIVER
BURLINGTON            9.8   10.2   10.5   11.1   11.9   12.7   13.2
NEW MUNSTER          11.6   12.2   12.7   13.5   14.6   15.6   16.1

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:ROCK RIVER
WATERTOWN             1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5
:CRAWFISH RIVER
MILFORD               2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0
:ROCK RIVER
JEFFERSON             3.6    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4
FORT ATKINSON        10.9   10.9   10.8   10.8   10.8   10.7   10.7
LAKE KOSHKONONG       5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7
AFTON                 3.4    3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.1    3.1
:TURTLE CREEK
CLINTON               3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6
:PECATONICA RIVER
DARLINGTON            2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER
BLANCHARDVILLE        3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9
:PECATONICA RIVER
MARTINTOWN            4.3    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.0    4.0    4.0
:SUGAR RIVER
BRODHEAD              1.1    1.1    1.1    1.0    1.0    0.9    0.8
:WISCONSIN RIVER
PORTAGE               9.4    9.4    9.3    9.2    9.2    8.8    8.7
:BARABOO RIVER
ROCK SPRINGS          8.1    8.1    8.1    8.1    8.1    8.1    8.0
WEST BARABOO          2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5
BARABOO               6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.1    6.1
:FOX RIVER
BERLIN                7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.4    7.4
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SHEBOYGAN             1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
:ROOT RIVER
FRANKLIN              2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.7
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYMOND               2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2
:ROOT RIVER
RACINE                2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDARBURG             5.4    5.4    5.4    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3
:FOX RIVER
BURLINGTON            6.4    6.4    6.3    6.2    6.2    6.0    6.0
NEW MUNSTER           5.7    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.4

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

THERE IS SOME ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY IN THE OUTLOOK FOR PORW3
DUE TO PROBLEMS SIMULATING RESERVOIR OPERATIONS AT
PETENWELL AND CASTLE ROCK.  ADDITIONALLY.. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AT THE UPPER END OF THE DISTRIBUTION WHICH IS ABOVE THE TOP OF
THE RATING CURVE (20.7 FT).  THE OUTLOOK NUMBERS IN
THIS PRODUCT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR SIMULATION BIAS AND THEY
ARE DIFFERENT THAN THE VALUES PORTRAYED IN THE EXCEEDANCE
GRAPHICS.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/MKX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED MARCH 6 2014

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.