Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FGUS73 KMKX 291616
ESFMKX

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1016 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024

...Spring Flood Outlook...

The risk of spring flooding is below average across southern
Wisconsin. Flooding is still possible, but the underlying risk is
not elevated at this time. The absense of a snowpack, the drier than
average February, average to below average soil moisture, no frost
in the ground are the main factors in the below average flood risk.

...Flood Outlook Factors...

Despite the lack of a snowpack, precipitation for the winter months
has been close to average. Precipitation since December 1 was 75-
125% of normal across most of southern Wisconsin. For the month of
February, precipitation was 25-75% of normal. The absense of a
snowpack and the drier than average February play a large role
in the decreased flood risk.

Streamflow across southern Wisconsin are close to normal, the 25-
75th percentile, averaged over the past 14 days.

Soil moisture is close to average in southeast Wisconsin and below
average in south-central and southwest Wisconsin. Precipitation
deficits are 6 to 15 inches since May 1 across southwest and south-
central Wisconsin. Parts of southwest and south-central Wisconsin
are in moderate and severe drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
These long term precipitation deficits and the impact on the soils
also play a large role in the decreased flood risk.

All the frost depth sensors in southern Wisconsin are reporting no
frost.

Rivers are mainly ice free, so the ice jam risk is low. However some
lakes are still ice covered so ice may make its way downstream and
could cause some jam issues.

Little precipitation is expected over the next week. The outlook for
the second week in March indicates enhanced odds for above average
temperature and above average precipitation. The outlook for March-
April-May indicates enhanced odds for above average temperature and
equal chances of above, near and below average precipitation.


...Probabilistic Forecast Information for River Forecast Points...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Rock River
Watertown            5.5    6.0    6.5 :   5   16   <5   11   <5    6
:Crawfish River
Milford              7.0    9.0   10.0 :  16   38   <5    9   <5    7
:Rock River
Jefferson           10.0   11.0   13.0 :  15   37    9   26   <5    7
Fort Atkinson       16.0   17.0   18.0 :  10   19   <5    9   <5    5
Lake Koshkonong     10.0   11.0   11.5 :  24   45   13   31   12   24
Afton                9.0   11.1   12.2 :  24   44   11   17   <5   10
:Turtle Creek
Clinton              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  10   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
Beloit               7.5   10.5   12.5 :   9   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
Darlington          13.5   15.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:East Branch Pecatonica River
Blanchardville      11.0   14.0   16.0 :   8   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
Martintown          13.5   18.0   21.0 :   9   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sugar River
Albany              12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Brodhead             5.0    8.0   10.0 :  20   36   <5    9   <5   <5
:Wisconsin River
Wisconsin Dells     16.0   17.6   18.9 :  <5   25   <5   13   <5    7
Portage             17.0   18.0   19.0 :  16   71    7   52   <5   24
:Baraboo River
Reedsburg           14.0   16.0   18.0 :  37   49   17   31    7   13
Rock Springs        18.5   21.0   23.0 :  18   34   10   27   <5    8
West Baraboo         9.0   10.5   12.5 :   5   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
Baraboo             16.0   22.0   23.1 :  19   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Black Earth Creek
Black Earth          5.5    7.0    8.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Fox River
Princeton            9.5   11.0   12.0 :   6   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
Berlin              13.0   14.5   16.0 :  10   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sheboygan River
Sheboygan            8.0   10.0   12.0 :  15   32    6    8   <5    6
:Root River
Franklin             8.0   10.0   12.0 :  22   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Root River Canal
Raymond              9.0   11.0   12.0 :  19   22   <5    5   <5   <5
:Root River
Racine               7.0    7.5    8.0 :   6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
Cedarburg           10.0   11.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Milwaukee River
Cedarburg           11.0   13.0   14.0 :  16   39   <5    9   <5   <5
:Fox River Lower
Waukesha             6.0    8.0   10.0 :   9   15   <5    8   <5   <5
Burlington          11.0   12.0   14.0 :  12   25    7   16   <5   <5
New Munster         11.0   13.0   14.0 :  60   68   12   32    9   19

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Rock River
Watertown             2.9    2.9    3.1    3.8    4.5    5.0    5.6
:Crawfish River
Milford               3.0    3.3    3.7    4.6    6.1    7.7    8.5
:Rock River
Jefferson             5.3    5.5    6.0    7.5    9.3   10.9   12.0
Fort Atkinson        12.2   12.2   12.7   13.6   14.5   16.1   16.6
Lake Koshkonong       6.3    6.4    7.6    8.8    9.8   11.8   12.2
Afton                 5.7    5.7    6.3    7.9    8.8   11.2   11.8
:Turtle Creek
Clinton               4.2    4.6    4.9    5.5    6.2    7.9    9.7
Beloit                4.1    4.3    4.6    5.2    5.8    7.0    9.0
:Pecatonica River
Darlington            3.9    4.0    4.5    5.3    7.1    9.6   11.0
:East Branch Pecatonica River
Blanchardville        5.8    6.0    6.4    7.5    9.9   10.6   12.1
:Pecatonica River
Martintown            6.8    7.1    7.7    8.7   11.5   13.4   14.4
:Sugar River
Albany                4.7    4.9    5.5    6.5    8.3    9.6   10.7
Brodhead              1.8    1.9    2.3    3.2    4.8    5.6    7.3
:Wisconsin River
Wisconsin Dells       5.5    6.3    7.8    9.9   11.6   13.4   14.3
Portage              11.8   12.3   13.2   15.1   16.7   17.9   18.2
:Baraboo River
Reedsburg             7.8    9.0   10.6   12.5   15.3   17.0   18.6
Rock Springs         10.6   11.5   12.8   15.3   17.7   21.1   22.9
West Baraboo          3.1    3.5    4.2    5.1    6.0    7.6    9.2
Baraboo               9.2   10.2   11.8   13.9   15.7   18.0   20.0
:Black Earth Creek
Black Earth           2.7    2.8    2.9    3.3    3.9    4.3    5.2
:Fox River
Princeton             5.8    6.0    6.5    7.2    8.1    9.0   10.0
Berlin               10.3   10.4   10.9   11.5   12.2   13.0   13.8
:Sheboygan River
Sheboygan             3.2    3.7    4.5    5.7    7.3    8.4   11.7
:Root River
Franklin              3.2    4.1    6.0    6.8    7.6    8.4    8.6
:Root River Canal
Raymond               4.4    4.6    5.8    7.2    8.5   10.0   10.6
:Root River
Racine                3.5    3.8    4.3    4.8    5.4    6.2    7.1
:Cedar Creek
Cedarburg             6.3    6.3    6.9    7.7    8.5    9.2    9.6
:Milwaukee River
Cedarburg             7.1    7.3    8.2    9.3   10.4   11.9   12.6
:Fox River Lower
Waukesha              3.6    3.9    4.2    4.7    5.2    5.7    7.6
Burlington            7.5    7.8    8.3    9.3   10.1   11.2   12.5
New Munster           8.3    9.0    9.8   11.3   12.2   13.5   15.2

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Rock River
Watertown             2.8    2.4    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.4
:Crawfish River
Milford               2.9    2.6    2.3    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Rock River
Jefferson             5.4    4.1    3.5    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.8
Fort Atkinson        12.2   11.7   11.4   11.1   11.0   10.9   10.8
Lake Koshkonong       6.7    6.4    6.2    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.7
Afton                 5.8    5.8    4.6    3.9    3.5    2.6    2.6
:Turtle Creek
Clinton               3.9    3.9    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5
Beloit                3.8    3.8    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.4
:Pecatonica River
Darlington            3.4    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.7    2.5    2.4
:East Branch Pecatonica River
Blanchardville        5.1    5.0    4.7    4.4    4.2    4.1    4.1
:Pecatonica River
Martintown            6.7    6.5    6.1    5.7    5.5    5.3    5.2
:Sugar River
Albany                4.2    4.1    3.9    3.8    3.7    3.7    3.6
Brodhead              1.4    1.3    1.2    1.1    0.9    0.8    0.8
:Wisconsin River
Wisconsin Dells       2.7    2.1    1.6    1.0    0.8    0.8    0.8
Portage               9.8    9.3    8.8    8.4    8.1    8.1    8.1
:Baraboo River
Reedsburg             4.8    4.4    4.0    3.5    3.1    3.0    2.9
Rock Springs          8.4    8.1    8.0    7.7    7.5    7.5    7.5
West Baraboo          2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5
Baraboo               7.3    6.9    6.8    6.4    6.2    6.1    6.0
:Black Earth Creek
Black Earth           2.3    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0
:Fox River
Princeton             5.4    5.0    4.8    4.4    4.1    3.8    3.6
Berlin                9.9    9.8    9.6    9.2    9.0    8.7    8.5
:Sheboygan River
Sheboygan             2.3    2.3    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0    1.9
:Root River
Franklin              2.3    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Root River Canal
Raymond               2.4    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1
:Root River
Racine                2.7    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3
:Cedar Creek
Cedarburg             5.6    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.2
:Milwaukee River
Cedarburg             6.0    5.8    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5
:Fox River Lower
Waukesha              3.0    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7
Burlington            7.3    6.9    6.7    6.5    6.4    6.2    6.2
New Munster           7.9    7.2    6.9    6.5    6.3    6.2    6.1

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/mkx for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued March 14, 2024.

Marquardt

$$


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